NFL Teaser Picks Week 11: Niners Ground Cardinals in Mexico
The San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns headline our NFL Week 11 teasers picks.
Teaser bets enable you to move spreads and totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. They’re popular wagers for both professional and recreational bettors, and you can read more about teaser bets and strategies here.
Check out our NFL Week 11 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 11 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 11 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: 49ers (-8)
The 49ers are trending in the right direction with just 30 points allowed across their past two games. They’re also now ranking eighth in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, fifth in defense grade per Pro Football Focus, and are allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play.
With Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray labeled day-to-day due to a hamstring injury by head coach Kliff Kingsbury on Monday, I’m confident in the 49ers winning this neutral-site game in Mexico by at least a field goal.
Even if Murray is able to suit up Monday, the Arizona offense is going to be in trouble. The Cardinals rank 31st in net yards per play and 28th in offensive DVOA. Simply put, this is also a notable uptick in class after facing the 28th-easiest schedule of opposing defenses by DVOA.
Of course, then there’s the Arizona defense. The Cards have surrendered the second-highest success rate in the league and rank 26th in defense grade per PFF. San Francisco has the offensive weapons and defense to pull away from Arizona, and I consider this one of the stronger teaser leans to this point of the season.
Underdog to tease up: Browns (+8.5)
The weather forecast is calling for high winds and freezing temperatures Sunday in Orchard Park, NY. Additionally, heavy snowfall is expected throughout the weekend. So, while this is an unconventional spread to tease up, giving the Cleveland Browns more than a two-touchdown head start with a 6-point teaser presents value.
The potentially prohibitive weather benefits the underdog, especially if this turns into a low-scoring game. The Buffalo Bills also rank 27th in run defense grade per PFF, so I anticipate the Browns being able to move the ball on the ground and slowing this game down. Cleveland ranks second in EPA per rush and third in rush DVOA, too.
Obviously, there’s unpredictability in forecasting the conditions five days in advance. Still, the betting market will react, and I could see both the Buffalo spread of -8.5 and the 43.5-point Over/Under dropping this week to add closing-line value to this leg.
Even if the weather doesn’t have a significant impact, I’m comfortable with a 14-point buffer. The look-ahead spread was only Bills -6.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 11 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Cowboys-Vikings (47.5)
Without significant movement to either the look-ahead or opening total, I consider this an accurate number. It also means there’s an edge in teasing it down through the key range of 43-44.
This will be the second consecutive road game for the Dallas Cowboys, and I anticipate their defense struggling to slow down the Minnesota Vikings. Minny has averaged 28.5 points per game at U.S. Bank Stadium this season, and the Over hit in each of the Vikings’ past three home games.
I don’t value the Dallas defense as highly as it ranks in most metrics, and the Cowboys allowed 60 points across their past two games. There’s nothing intimidating about the Minnesota defense, either.
The Vikings rank 19th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in opposing success rate. With Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott ranking sixth in EPA per play over the past four weeks, and the Cowboys ranking second in rush DVOA for the season, I expect Dallas to put points on the board again this week.
Total to tease up: Panthers-Ravens (43.5)
There are multiple encouraging angles to this teaser leg. To start, the Carolina Panthers and Baltimore Ravens have combined for a 7-12 Over/Under record this season. As a result, moving this total well above the key range of 43-44 adds an even larger cushion for the trend to continue.
The Ravens have also faced the third-hardest schedule by DVOA, whereas the Panthers have faced the 10th-easiest. In particular, I view the difference in Baltimore playing the fourth-toughest schedule of opposing offenses, and Carolina the fifth-easiest slate of opposing defenses as a huge mismatch advantage for the Ravens.
Baltimore runs the second-slowest offense in seconds per play, and I expect the Ravens to build a lead, lean on the ground game, and let the clock run.
I’m also encouraged by the familiarity the Ravens have in facing Panthers starting quarterback Baker Mayfield eight times over the previous four seasons. Furthermore, I don’t expect Mayfield to elevate an offense ranking 29th in both DVOA and EPA per play.
Where to Bet on the NFL
Related Articles
