Super Bowl 2026 Commercial Odds at Prediction Markets: Finding Live Value at Kalshi
It's Super Bowl Sunday, and while you're finalizing your picks and snacks, the world's biggest brands are hoping their $8 million 30-second ad spots will generate buzz and move the needle. When play begins at Levi's Stadium tonight, the action on the field is only part of the story; for many, the commercial breaks will provide the real entertainment.
Will AI giants like OpenAI enter the market? Who will win the streaming wars between Disney+ and Netflix? The 2026 ad landscape is a clash of high-end commerce and culture. And, this year, don't have to just watch the ads - you can trade on which brands will advertise during the Super Bowl at prediction markets like Kalshi.
Whether you're expecting a "lock" like the Budweiser Clydesdales or hunting for the best value picks, our gameday guide for Super Bowl 60 commercials and our Super Bowl predictions will have you ready when the action gets underway at 6:30 p.m. ET, airing on NBC and streaming on Peacock.
๐ Which brands will advertise during Super Bowl 2026?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
How Kalshi's ad market works for Super Bowl LX ads
There are some important caveats for this market that you'll want to be aware of before you jump in.
- The market pertains to the national broadcast only, not regional ads
- The market refers to the game itself, and does not include pre-game or post-game broadcast segments
- Clearly identified sponsorship segments are included (e.g. "This halftime show brought to you by...")
- Branded content integration within the broadcast that clearly identifies the brand
- Stadium signage and field graphics are not included
Live tracker
| Brand | Category | Status / Celebrity | Prediction market chance (Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Tech/AI | Rumored | 94% (94ยข, near lock) |
| Liquid Death | Beverage | Teased | 96% (98ยข, near lock) |
| Disney+ | Streaming | Teased | 69% (69ยข, likely) |
| SHEIN | Fashion | Unknown | 14% (14ยข, unlikley) |
๐ค The cost of thirty seconds
When making your choices, keep in mind that a 30-second ad costs in the area of $8 million dollars. Companies need to have a pretty substantial advertising budget to drop that kind of coin on an advertisement. Despite it all, unsurprisingly ads have sold out.
Heavy hitters that have already released ad trailers (and the celebrities that are in them)
A mix of companies that are annual fixtures and making debuts line the list of heavy-hitters that have already released teasers of their Super Bowl 2026 ads. Here's a look at some of the big-name brands you can expect to see.
- Squarespace with Emma Stone
- Meta (Oakley Meta) with Spike Lee, iShowSpeed, Marshawn Lynch, and more
- Uber Eats with Bradley Cooper and Matthew McConaughey
- Liquid I.V. with Ejae from KPop Demon Hunters
- Pringles with Sabrina Carpenter
- Kinder Bueno
- Ritz Crackers
- Hellman's
- Manscaped
- Budweiser
‼️ More big names that have surfaced
- poppi and Charli XCX have dropped a teaser, marking the third straight year that the prebiotic soda brand is springing for the Big Game
- the "He Gets Us" campaign will return for another year
- Lays has dropped a teaser for its ad
AI giants and streaming services
It feels like only yesterday that we were inundated with crypto ads during the Big Game. This year's version of that might be A.I. giants, who are expected to be pushed in a big way as they outpace traditional tech names
OpenAI is listed at 93% (93 cents), Gemini clocks in at 97% (98 cents), Coinbase at 68% (70 cents), and Anthropic at 16% (17 cents). The value has disappeared on Gemini, while Anthropic has bottomed out.
Streaming services are also highly likely to be showcasing their products. Disney+ (75%, 75 cents), Paramount+ (67%, 67 cents), and Netflix (66%, 66 cents) appear to be likely contributors on Super Bowl Sunday.
💡 Reading Kalshi odds
Kalshi provides users with a percentage chance, which can be switched to American odds using an odds converter. That can turn the Kalshi "chance" into a number you're more familiar with. Here is a look at five of the markets trading to show what they would be in traditional markets. Remember, these markets fluctuate as information becomes available, and the odds move as they do.
| Brand | Chance at Kalshi | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pepsi | 98% | -4900 |
| Amazon Prime | 82% | -456 |
| Netflix | 63% | -170 |
| Temu | 42% | +138 |
| SHEIN | 14% | +614 |
๐ฎ Which Super Bowl commercials will we see? Predictions & odds
Some markets are near-impossible to want to get into right now, Pepsi (99%, 99 cents) isn't going to turn you much of a profit, we can look further down the market at some choices that might have some wiggle room.
- The AI arms race: Google (the parent of Gemini) has been a frequent advertiser at the Super Bowl, and continuing to plug the AI program is a solid choice - the value is gone at 98 cents; could it be competitor Anthropic (17%, 17 cents) that offers value here?
- Spotify vs. Apple Music: Apple Music is the sponsor of the Super Bowl halftime show; Spotify (22%, 22 cents) could try to counter that exposure with an ad or sponsored segment of its own
- Etail: Amazon Prime doubles as etail and a streaming service, and it's not a bad pick a 79% (81 cents), but the real value could lie with Chinese giant Temu (35%, 35 cents)
๐ How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
๐ก Why should I wager on the Super Bowl brand advertisers at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
โ Super Bowl 2026 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl?
The Seattle Seahawks are the Super Bowl favorites with odds of -240 to beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 2026. Those odds carry an implied probability of 70.59% for the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, according to our odds converter.
When is the Super Bowl?
The Super Bowl will be on Sunday, Feb. 8, at 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Where is the Super Bowl?
Super Bowl 60 will be at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Feb. 8 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Who's playing in the Super Bowl?
The NFC champion Seattle Seahawks will face the AFC champion New England Patriots in Super Bowl 2026.
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