Top Rams Prop Picks for NFC Championship

Henry John

Last Updated: January 29, 2022 8:45 AM EST • 3 min 45 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JANUARY 23: Van Jefferson #12 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball in the fourth quarter of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Raymond James Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Mike Ehrmann / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

A spot in Super Bowl LVI is on the line when the San Francisco 49ers collide with the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game. This article highlights some of the best NFL prop picks available on the Rams.

The Rams survived a Divisional Round game in which they lost four fumbles against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It got a bit closer than head coach Sean McVay planned on down the stretch, but the Rams managed to pull out a 30-27 win over the defending Super Bowl champs. Rams QB Matthew Stafford and receiver Cooper Kupp came through in the clutch to continue what has been a phenomenal connection between them this season.

Now, L.A. can try to do exactly what the Bucs did a year ago and play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. After coughing up a 17-point lead to the 49ers en route to an overtime loss in Week 18, there is also a revenge angle to Sunday’s NFC title game.

https://twitter.com/RamsNFL/status/1485393354921816064

Here are my prop picks and predictions for the Rams in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game against the 49ers (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Rams Prop Picks

Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions (-110) ????Van Jefferson longest reception Over 17.5 yards (-120) ???Rams team total Under 23.5 (+110) ???

Top Rams Prop Predictions

Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions (-110)

The 49ers' defense has come up with only nine interceptions this entire season. Only four teams had fewer INTs than San Francisco. Oddly enough, four of those nine interceptions were thrown by Stafford. He threw two picks in each of the regular-season matchups against the 49ers. He threw a league-high 17 interceptions in the regular season and just under 25% of those were against San Francisco.

In many ways, Stafford has exceeded expectations in the first two rounds of the postseason. His two-INT game against the Niners in Week 18 capped a rough close to the regular season for the 33-year-old. He had at least one pick in each of the final four regular-season games and threw a whopping seven interceptions over the final three weeks. While many NFL betting analysts were concerned that this pattern would continue into the postseason, he has yet to throw a pick in the playoffs. Of course, the blowout nature of the Rams’ Wild Card Round win over Arizona only saw him attempt just 17 passes.

It seems reasonable to anticipate that the Rams will air it out early and often in the NFC Championship Game, as they go up against the vulnerable 49ers secondary. We saw Stafford succumb to multiple picks when trailing and when playing with a double-digit lead against the Niners this season. For as talented of a QB as he is, there are bound to be some nerves that come with playing for a spot in the Super Bowl for the first time in his career.

Look for Stafford to have at least one INT in Sunday’s game.

Jefferson longest reception Over 17.5 yards (-120)

In many ways, Jefferson is not used very effectively in the Rams’ offense. Given that he lines up outside, the majority of his routes are run as a deep threat with the goal being to take the top off of opposing defenses.

While Jefferson totaled only five receptions in the Rams’ two regular-season games against the Niners, he had impressive yardage averages of 18.0 and 15.5 in those games. Dating back to Week 7, Jefferson has averaged double-digit yards per catch in 11 of 13 games played. This includes both of L.A.’s playoff victories.

The real key to playing Over 17.5 yards on Jefferson’s longest reception on Sunday lies in the San Francisco defense. The 49ers may have been able to get away with man coverage against the Green Bay Packers' lackluster receiving corps last week, but that simply will not be the case in the NFC title game. Kupp, Jefferson, and Odell Beckham Jr. are all capable of winning against man coverage. In Jefferson’s case, those wins have a high likelihood of coming deep down the field.

From a schematical standpoint, Jefferson has a great chance to have at least one 20-yard reception.

Rams team total Under 23.5 (+110)

Our final Rams prop bet looks to play Under 23.5 team points. After scoring only 10 points in the first meeting with the 49ers this season, the Rams scored 24 points in their Week 18 overtime loss. While this is a rather daring play given that Los Angeles is the favorite for Sunday’s matchup, the plus-money price certainly adds to the appeal.

The 49ers ranked second in adjusted efficiency against the run this season. San Francisco has one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The line is highlighted by pass-rusher Nick Bosa and tackle Arik Armstead. Fred Warner is perhaps the best linebacker in the game. Against a vulnerable Rams offensive front that is made worse by McVay’s poor blocking schemes, the 49ers could conceivably have a field day. They certainly did so in the Week 18 matchup by sacking Stafford five times.

Of course, the 49ers will also be trying to play a run-heavy, ball-control game. This could be a much more defensive-minded matchup than many are anticipating. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo just needs to not give the Rams cheap points off of turnovers. With the Over/Under for the game set at 45.5, a 23-21 or 23-20 final score is certainly considered to be within the realm of possibilities.

For what it's worth, the total has gone Over in five of the Rams’ last seven home games as favorites. While bettors should never bet solely based on a trend, it is certainly interesting to note and consider.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Rams prop picks made on 1/29/2022 at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.