Top Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 9

Our football experts make their best Week 9 NFL prop picks, with an eye on value.

The Week 9 NFL schedule features several key divisional matchups and multiple cross-conference battles as we prepare to head into the second half of the first 17-game regular season. A couple of lopsided matchups present themselves as excellent opportunities for our weekly NFL prop picks.

Here's a look at the top team and player NFL prop picks for the Week 9 schedule from our team of betting experts.

NFL Team Prop Picks

Denver Broncos Over 9.5 second-half points (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook) - Esten McLarenLowest-scoring game: Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins (+800 via FanDuel Sportsbook) - Dakota CoxAtlanta Falcons Over 17.5 points (+100 via DraftKings) - Martin GreenTexans Under 19.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) - Mike Spector

NFL Player Prop Picks

David Njoku to score a TD (+450 via DraftKings) - McLarenJosh Allen to have the most passing yards (+850 via FanDuel) - CoxPatrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) - GreenLamar Jackson Over 55.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) - Spector

SEE ALSO: Top 3 Underdog Picks of Week 9

Top Expert Team Prop Picks

Broncos Over 9.5 second-half points (-110)

The Broncos (4-4) are the second-biggest underdogs of the week as they visit the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (6-1). Dallas is favored by 10.5 points and is a perfect 7-0 against the spread this season; however, Week 9’s spread is the biggest the Cowboys have had to cover in 2021. 

Dallas is 12th in the league with an average of 10.7 second-half points allowed per game and Denver scores 11.2 second-half points per game. The Cowboys also outscore the Broncos 13.3 to 8.4 on average in the first half. Dallas should rush out to a big lead in QB Dak Prescott’s return from a calf injury, but the backdoor will be wide open for Denver to score a couple of times in the second half, even if falling shy of the cover. - McLaren

Lowest-scoring game: Texans vs. Dolphins (+800)

The Texans have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, and they traded away starting RB Mark Ingram ahead of Week 8. With little to play for, it is hard to imagine them torching the Dolphins defense on the road. 

Miami should win this game, but it relies on steady drives and the time of possession. This game could easily have fewer than 30 total points scored. While it is hard to predict the lowest-scoring game, the value for a matchup between 1-7 teams is impossible to beat. - Cox

Falcons Over 17.5 points (+100)

The Saints secondary looked shaky in the 36-27 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Bucs QB Tom Brady racked up four passing touchdowns during that game. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is not at Brady’s level, but he is still arguably a top-10 quarterback, and he has a strong receiving corps at his disposal, so he should be able to fuel the Falcons to at least 18 points in the divisional matchup.

The Falcons were disappointing against the Carolina Panthers last week, but they tend to raise their game against the Saints, and this should be a close contest. - Green

Texans Under 19.5 points (-110)

Since Davis Mills took over for the injured Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback, the Texans offense has been atrocious on the road. In three road games against the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals, the Texans totaled eight points.

Even at home last week against the Los Angeles Rams, they trailed 38-0 entering the fourth quarter and scored 22 unanswered points in garbage time when Los Angeles pulled most of its starters. Last week, the Dolphins held the Bills to three first-half points and will look to build off that momentum to turn things around for a scoring defense that ranks 29th, while allowing 29.1 PPG allowed. - Spector

Top Expert Player Prop Picks

Njoku to score a TD (+450)

Njoku has found the end zone just once this season. That was in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers when catching all seven of his targets for 149 yards in Cleveland’s 47-42 loss. However, I’m expecting Njoku to step up to fill the void and take on additional targets in the absence of WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Boosted by that big performance in Week 5, Njoku is averaging a modest, but career-high 40.4 yards per game. He’s also averaging 13.5 yards per target and 16.2 yards per reception. Keep an eye out for his yardage and longest reception props closer to Sunday, but the 4.5-1 return for an anytime touchdown is a great way to profit off of what will be a big day in the Browns’ and QB Baker Mayfield’s biggest game of the season. - McLaren

Allen to have most passing yards (+850)

Buffalo has one of the best offenses in the NFL. Allen is an MVP candidate, and he is going against a weak Jacksonville Jaguars defense that traded away CB C.J. Henderson earlier this season. 

Jacksonville will likely turn the ball over a lot, giving the Bills plenty of opportunities to throw the ball. With so many weapons at his disposal, this is excellent value. - Cox

Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-115)

Mahomes has averaged 28.6 rushing yards per game so far this season, which is considerably higher than his prop total against the Green Bay Packers. He has topped his rushing yards line in six of eight games so far this season, and he has exceeded 21.5 yards five times. He is coming up against a Green Bay team that allows 115.0 rushing yards per game, which makes it the 17th-ranked rush defense in the league.

The Packers have the sixth-best pass defense in the NFL, so Mahomes may be inclined to run the ball regularly on Sunday. - Green

Jackson Over 55.5 rushing yards (-114)

Jackson has exceeded this rushing total in five of seven games, and his 88 rushing yards in his last game was his second-highest total of the season. The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a bye, which means Jackson should be well-rested, and head coach John Harbaugh should be ready and willing to run him a bunch.

The Minnesota Vikings rank second in the league with 24 sacks through seven games, and if they live in the backfield against Baltimore, Jackson will have plenty of opportunities to escape the pocket and find daylight. In addition, one of the best run-blocking tight ends, Nick Boyle, is healthy and will help pave the way for Jackson’s designed runs. - Spector

SEE ALSO: All NFL Picks and Predictions