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Jets vs. Patriots Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

Our Jets vs. Patriots prediction for Week 6 includes our best bet, projected score, and the latest odds for Sunday's matchup.

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: October 17, 2026 12:00 PM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to throw as we break down our Jets vs. Patriots prediction. Photo by Yannick Peterhans / NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

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An AFC East rivalry will be ignited in Week 6 between a pair of top-five defenses as I make my Jets vs. Patriots prediction.

The Jets just snapped a three-game losing skid, while Drake Maye is having a resurgence, beating the Bills and blowing out the Raiders in back-to-back wins. The Patriots are a 7.5-point betting favorite Sunday, with kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS).

Jets vs. Patriots picks & predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 6 based on the latest NFL odds.

Pick	Bet size
Jets +7.5 (-115 via DraftKings)	2.3 units
Under 43.5 (-105 via DraftKings)	1.05 units

Total wagered: 3.35 units | Max profit: +3 units

Jets vs. Patriots prediction & best bet

Jets +7.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

The Jets are flying under the radar into this game. QB Geno Smith has a 69 percent completion rate and zero interceptions, while head coach Aaron Glenn's defense ranks fourth in the league in points allowed per game.

New York has held four of its five opponents to 23 or fewer points, forcing six turnovers. The Jets enter this game with a +3 turnover differential.

New England is back on track with huge wins against the Bills and Raiders. However, Maye's turnover-prone play is lurking under the surface and the Jets' defense will be ready to exploit this weakness.

Even without star running back Breece Hall, Smith's rapport with wide receiver Garrett Wilson has led to 31 receptions for 374 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots have allowed 249-plus passing yards during their win streak, while playing better against the run.

Smith and the Jets can move the ball through the air in Foxborough. New York's defense will pressure Maye into bad decisions, allowing the Jets to cover as a full touchdown underdog in this divisional contest.

Go to DraftKings and bet Jets +7.5 at -115 odds.

📡 SBR Edge: Too Many Points

The Patriots have covered -7.5 in just two of five games played this season.

Smith, Wilson give Patriots a scare in Foxborough

The Jets' passing attack will keep them within striking distance for most of this game. New York's defense is going to help its offense by limiting Maye's passing ability, as it has held three teams under 150 passing yards in 2026.

The Smith-Wilson connection is strong. Despite New England getting some key pieces back, including cornerback Christian Gonzalez, the Jets' ability to wear down opponents and force turnovers will put the offense into favorable positions. The Patriots survive a scare in a narrow win.

Score prediction: Patriots 23, Jets 16

Jets vs. Patriots odds

Jets vs. Patriots opening odds

Moneyline: Jets +320 | Patriots -420
Spread: Jets +8.5 (-120) | Patriots -8.5 (+100)
Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-108) | Under 44.5 (-112)

How to watch Jets vs. Patriots: Week 6

Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
TV: CBS

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Written by:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.