Jaguars vs. Texans Free NFL Picks for Week 1

The NFL is back and we get things kicked off here with an AFC South matchup as the Houston Texans host the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a new era for the Jaguars while it might be the end of one for the Texans. Either way, let's dig a little deeper here to see if we can find some value in the NFL odds for this spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium

Trevor Lawrence Era Begins in Jacksonville

Anyone who has been paying attention to college football the last few years knows exactly who Trevor Lawrence is. There hasn't been a college quarterback this coveted since Andrew Luck back in 2012. Of course, with that much expectation comes a level of excitement from fans and with reason. Jacksonville has not had a franchise quarterback since Mark Brunell left town in 2003. Back then, the new expansion Jaguars were a perennial playoff team which sounds weird to say.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD61D2vfkPE

In the Jaguars first five seasons as a franchise, they made the playoffs four times, won their division twice and even made it to the AFC championship game twice losing to the Patriots (of course) and the Titans. The point is, with a legit franchise QB, the sky's the limit, even for an expansion team. Whether or not Lawrence is ready to live up to the hype remains to be seen. He will come into his first game as a road favorite which for me personally is always suspicious. Laying points with a rookie quarterback on the road is a recipe for disaster. Doing that in his first professional game doesn't seem smart but we'll get into why it's not crazy when we talk about the state of the current Texans team.

The Jaguars come into this game as -3 favorites according to the SBR odds page. Most of the top online sportsbooks have the total at 45 with some 44.5's available depending on where you shop. While I don't love the spot for Lawrence, the Texans current quarterback situation does not have me believing in them at all so let's take a closer look at what's going on in Houston.

https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/1435633731528794122?s=20

Life Without Deshaun Watson

We are certainly not going to get into Watson's off-the-field issues so let's start with the fact that he will not be playing in this game. Instead, the Texans will be starting Tyrod Taylor who plays the quarterback position very differently than Watson. With the talent around him last year, it would be no exaggeration to say Watson is one of the best players in the NFL with the numbers he put up last season. This Texans franchise has been one of the most mismanaged for the last few years so the fact that Watson is leaving, despite the reasons, is the best thing for his career.

As for this actual game and these numbers, the total seems to have more value to me than the spread. Let's start with my theory on not laying points with rookie quarterbacks on the road. I don't have the official stats but even the best rookie quarterbacks are inconsistent. Even the ones that exceed expectations usually have a lot of talent around them. Luckily for Lawrence, the Jags have been bad for long enough that he does have some weapons at wide receiver and running back.

I think they can put up points, mainly because this Texans secondary is awful and they did very little to improve that unit. On top of that, they don't have much of a pass rush and could be the worst run defense in the league. On the flip side, this isn't the old Jacksonville dominant defense from a few years ago. They used to be known as Sacksonville during that time but those days are done. I favor the over here because neither team has a defense that can do much while both offenses should be competent. While Taylor is nowhere the player Watson is, he is a professional quarterback that should keep the mistakes to a minimum.

My Pick

In today's NFL. 44.5 is a really low number and I think that we might be underestimating the Jags offense. They have some explosive players in D.J Chark and they picked up Marvin Jones from Detroit. They also have James Robinson who is an explosive running back and they went out and drafted Travis Etienne which gives them a potential solid one two punch. Etienne might be the most talented running back in the draft. On the flip side, the Texans offense isn't nearly as it was with Watson but it can do some things. My NFL pick for this spot is the over 44.5 which is available at BetOnline.

NFL pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.