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Colts vs. Vikings SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 15: Will Ryan Shred Minnesota Pass Defense?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 17, 2022 3:43 AM EST • 2 min 10 sec read.

Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 28, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Matt Ryan of the Indianapolis Colts looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium on Nov. 28, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images via AFP.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) head to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings (10-3) Saturday afternoon. Barring a road upset over the Vikings, the Colts will fade into obscurity outside the AFC South race. Here are our top Colts-Vikings picks. 

Can a favorable passing matchup for Colts quarterback Matt Ryan make things more interesting than anticipated for Indy?

Here are our best Colts vs. Vikings Week 15 NFL SGP picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 15!

Colts vs. Vikings SGP Picks Week 15

  • Under 47.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Matt Ryan Over 252.5 passing yards  (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Adam Thielen Under 50.5 receiving yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined Odds: +706 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Check out our Colts vs. Vikings picks!

Colts vs. Vikings Odds

Colts vs. Vikings SGP Predictions

Under 47.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota home games are 5-2 on Overs, but Indy road games are 2-5 over Overs, so those trends cancel each other out. Though Indy's defense fell against the potent Dallas Cowboys last week in a game that went Over the total, Colts matchups are just 4-9 on Overs this season.

Indianapolis only had two of 13 games this year clear a 47.5-point total. The Vikings engaged in some high-scoring affairs lately but this number seems quite lofty for a contest involving the Colts.

Even against Minnesota’s generous D, an Indianapolis O-line that ranks 28th in red zone touchdown percentage won’t make this game a shootout. Both DraftKings and FanDuel feature the total at 47.5 with standard -110 odds.

Matt Ryan Over 252.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota's pass defense ranks an NFL dead-last, allowing 287.2 passing yards per game. It’s been abysmal in the season's second half as opposing QBs cleared 275 passing yards in seven of the Vikes' last eight. 

Though Ryan averages 261.3 passing YPG, his average was buoyed by three outliers where he cleared 350 passing yards--the only three matchups he went above this passing mark in 2022. Because of Minnesota’s pass deficiencies, though, Saturday feels like another potential outlier for the veteran quarterback. 

DraftKings lists Ryan’s passing total at 249.5 with -130 odds. FanDuel’s line is only three yards higher, making the shift to the significantly more favorable -113 odds the preferred option. 

Adam Thielen Under 50.5 receiving yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vikings wideout Adam Thielen cleared 50.5 receiving yards in seven of 13 games this season but faces an Indianapolis pass defense that only allows 188.6 passing YPG (NFL 3rd).

Fellow receiver Justin Jefferson hit 98 or more receiving yards in eight of his last 10 matchups, so don’t expect the Colts to shut him down completely. Ancillary pieces in the Vikings' passing offense, however, might have a quiet afternoon. Thielen typically needs higher volume to meet this receiving total, but the Colts surrender just 20.3 completions per game.

DraftKings offers -125 odds on Under 54.5 Thielen receiving yards. Though the odds hit to gain that extra four yards of cushion isn’t necessarily drastic, we’re still riding with FanDuel because of the benefit it provided on the Ryan prop.

Colts-Vikings SGP picks made 12/16/2022 at 5:39 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.