Colts vs. Patriots Picks, Predictions Week 9: Will Indy's Offense Look Different After Coaching Change?
Sam Ehlinger and Mac Jones lead the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots in what was the AFC's fiercest rivalry over a decade ago. Read on for our Colts-Patriots picks.
Indianapolis fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady after another lackluster offensive performance in Week 8. The Colts rank 30th in scoring while averaging 16.1 points per game, and they're coming off consecutive losses for the first time all season after dropping games to the Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders.
Meanwhile, New England continued to beat up on the New York Jets in Week 8, knocking off the team's division rival for a 13th consecutive time. With the victory, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick passed George Halas for second on the all-time wins list with 325.
Here are our Colts-Patriots NFL picks for Week 9 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Colts vs. Patriots Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Weather: 75 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 13-mph south wind
Colts vs. Patriots Odds
Colts vs. Patriots Odds Analysis
The Patriots opened as 6-point favorites, but they're now down to -5.5 at most sportsbooks. This is a case of reverse line movement, as New England is garnering 66% of the cash and 69% of the tickets.
The total has experienced similar movement, decreasing from an opening line of 39.5 to 39. The Over is getting 70% of the cash, and the Under is drawing 60% of the tickets..
Colts vs. Patriots Picks
Colts vs. Patriots ATS Pick
Colts +5.5 (-110) ★★★
The Colts hold the dubious distinction of being the only team to have trailed entering the fourth quarter in every game this season.
However, despite Matt Ryan getting benched after leading the league in turnovers, the team kept it together well. Indianapolis has scored 20 or fewer points in seven of eight games, but New England is by no means an offensive juggernaut, and it's still unclear if Mac Jones is the team's future quarterback.
Chicago ran for 243 yards at 5.4 yards per carry during a road win against New England. Indianapolis can follow that recipe for success if it can finally get Jonathan Taylor and the ground game going.
Check out our top parlay picks for Week 9.
Colts vs. Patriots O/U Pick
Over 39 (-110) ★★★
Something needs to give in this matchup from an Over/Under perspective.
Indianapolis has been the league's most profitable Under team while cashing it in seven of eight games this season, and 12 of the Colts' previous 13 contests overall. Conversely, the Over has cashed in each of New England's last four matchups following a win, and eight of its previous nine home games.
Too many people are overvaluing the firing of Marcus Brady, as head coach Frank Reich has been calling the plays for Indianapolis all season. However, with Brady's game-planning responsibilities now divvied up among the rest of the coaching staff, there may be an increased sense of urgency to get more production out of a struggling offense.
Colts vs. Patriots Prop Pick
Shortest field goal made Under 27.5 yards (-120) ★★★
Both of these teams are struggling to score touchdowns in the red zone. Indianapolis ranks 26th with a 47.8% red-zone success rate, and the Colts are even worse on the road while converting just 30% of those trips into touchdowns. Meanwhile, New England ranks 29th with a 45.8% red-zone touchdown rate.
Patriots kicker Nick Folk is coming off a 5-for-5 kicking performance during Week 8 against the Jets. His shortest conversion was from 31 yards, but it's very likely either Folk or Indianapolis kicker Chase McLaughlin will be converting from an even shorter distance after another failed red-zone trip.
Check out our top NFL survivor picks for Week 9.
Where to Bet on Colts-Patriots Picks
Colts-Patriots picks made 11/3/2022 at 5:42 a.m. ET.
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