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Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction: Week 3 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

Our Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins prediction for Week 3 includes our best bet, projected score, and the latest odds for Sunday’s matchup.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 26, 2026 10:21 AM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles as he is featured in our Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction. Photo by Denny Medley-Imagn Images

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Patrick Mahomes and Co. hit the road for the first time this season when they play at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (1 p.m. ET, CBS), and I expect them to secure a comfortable victory, which I discuss in my Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction.

The Chiefs are the 10.5-point betting favorite, and I’m not deterred by Mahomes’ 1-4 ATS record as a double-digit road favorite. The Dolphins are outmatched on both sides of the ball, and the Chiefs offense is the most multifaceted it’s been in years.

🏈 Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks & predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 3 based on the latest NFL odds.

Pick	Bet size
Chiefs -10.5 (-108 via BetMGM)	1 unit
Over 45.5 (-105 via FanDuel)	0.5 units

Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: +1.41 units

💰Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction & best bet

Check out all of our NFL picks for more analysis across this week's slate.

Chiefs -10.5 (-108 via BetMGM)

The Dolphins have provided no cause for optimism. Hapless play on both sides of the ball has led to the second-worst defensive DVOA and the third-worst offensive DVOA. They've lost by an average of 18 points, scored the second-fewest points per game (13), and allowed the third-most (tied with Buffalo and Carolina).

The Chiefs' state of the union couldn’t be more different. Kenneth Walker III has provided the offense with diversity and versatility, allowing Mahomes to be much more effective in various passing schemes, including screens and play action.

They have scored the third-most points per game (32) and look dangerous on most possessions.

📡 SBR EDGE - Dolphins swimming alone

The Dolphins are the only team that hasn’t led at any point or had a sack.

Contrasting red zone defenses

I don’t love the Dolphins chances of hitting pay dirt even if they find a way to get into the red zone, as the Chiefs have a top-10 red zone defense in TDs allowed.

The Dolphins aren’t so good with their backs against the walls, allowing TDs at 89%, the fourth-worst through two weeks.

Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 17

📊 Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds

See the latest NFL odds for every Week 3 matchup.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins opening odds

Moneyline: Chiefs -599 | Dolphins +450
Spread: Chiefs -10.5 (-110) | Dolphins +10.5 (-108)
Over/Under: Over 45 (-108) | Under 45 (-110)

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Week 3

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
TV: CBS
Streaming: Fubo

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, specializes in writing about the NFL, hockey, and soccer, focusing on player props, game predictions, and futures plays. Most often utilizing FanDuel and bet365, the latter of which usually provides better early odds, he looks for a perfect-storm combo of in-form players who fare historically well against the opponent in question. He has contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, The Hockey Writers, The Hockey News, The Calgary Herald, and other publications. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a bachelor's degree in journalism from Griffith University.