Top Bengals Prop Picks for AFC Championship

The Cincinnati Bengals visit the Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday's AFC Championship Game, and we offer up the best prop picks for the underdogs.

The Bengals and Chiefs clash in a rematch of the Week 17 game in Cincinnati, which the Bengals won 34-31 in an upset. They're heavy underdogs once again as the Chiefs bid for a third straight trip to the Super Bowl.

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Here are my top Bengals prop picks for Sunday’s AFC Championship against the Chiefs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Bengals Prop Picks

Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (+100) ???Joe Mixon Over 31.5 receiving yards (-115) ????Joe Burrow Over 24.5 completions (-115) ?????

SEE ALSO: Bengals vs. Chiefs Picks

Top Bengals Prop Predictions

Chase anytime TD (+100)

This may seem like a square bet, but hear me out. The Chiefs have been very vulnerable against the pass inside of the red zone this season, surrendering the fourth-most targets to opposing wide receivers inside the 20-yard line. It’s largely because of that figure that the Chiefs have allowed 19 touchdowns to the position.

It’s also due in part to Chase. The rookie went for three touchdowns all by himself against the Chiefs when these two teams met near the end of the regular season and his speed was simply too much to deal with for this weak KC secondary.

Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu (concussion) may wind up missing this game, which would only stand to strengthen this prop. Kansas City was incredibly vulnerable in the back against the Buffalo Bills, allowing Gabriel Davis to score four times.

Chase should have a field day. He should definitely score a touchdown, considering he has the second-most red-zone targets on his team.

SEE ALSO: Chiefs Prop Picks

Mixon Over 31.5 receiving yards (-115)

Mixon should also capitalize on a weak Chiefs passing defense, as he has become more involved in the passing game. Although his work in the pass game was sporadic at best during much of the regular season, Cincinnati has elected to get him going in that capacity over the last month.

Over his last four games, including two playoff wins, Mixon is averaging 6.5 targets and a robust 47.25 yards per game. He exceeded this 31-yard mark in three out of those four games, and every time he received at least five targets this season he shattered this number.

Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most targets to the running back position and the third-most receiving yards at 887.

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SEE ALSO: Conference Championship Picks Roundup

Burrow Over 24.5 completions (-115)

This is a pretty sharp line considering Burrow was at or above 24 completions in seven of his 16 regular-season starts. With that said, things have changed lately.

Burrow is throwing a lot more. He had at least 34 passing attempts in each of his last four games, averaging 39 per game. We spoke earlier about the check-downs to Mixon becoming a big part of the offense, which has driven up Burrow’s completion percentage to at least 70.6% in all of those contests.

I also like the Over on Burrow’s attempts, but this is a good way to fit it into a same-game parlay. The Bengals should be playing from behind all game and abandon the run just like they have since Week 17.

Parlay picks: Chase anytime TD + Mixon Over 29.5 receiving yards + Burrow 25+ completions = +390

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

49ers prop picks made on 1/28/2022 at 5:54 pm. ET.