Top 49ers vs. Cowboys Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend
The NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys play host to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday evening of Wild Card Weekend, we break it down it with our top 49ers-Cowboys NFL prop picks.
The Cowboys returned to the top of the NFC East for the first time since 2018 with a 12-5 record in the second season under head coach Mike McCarthy. QB Dak Prescott returned from injury to throw for 4,449 yards and 37 touchdowns against a modest 10 interceptions. He's a favorite for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award.
The 49ers survived injuries up and down the roster, as well as unstable quarterback play to finish 10-7 and with a wild-card berth. They sealed their playoff fate with a 27-24 overtime win over the rival Los Angeles Rams in Week 18.
Here are my top NFL prop picks for Sunday’s Wild Card Weekend matchup between the 49ers and Cowboys (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SEE ALSO:49ers vs. Cowboys Picks
Top 49ers vs. Cowboys Prop Picks
Elijah Mitchell Over 90.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115) ????Jimmy Garoppolo Under 1.5 TDs (-105) & Over 0.5 INTs (-140) ???Dak Prescott longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-110) ???
SEE ALSO: NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks Roundup
49ers vs. Cowboys Prop Predictions for Wild Card Weekend
Mitchell Over 90.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)
Mitchell might have been in the Rookie of the Year conversation if he didn’t battle injuries. Still, the sixth-round pick rushed for 963 yards on 4.7 yards per attempt across 11 games, and he had five scores on his 207 carries. He’s not a huge passing game weapon out of the backfield, but we’ll include the receiving yards on this prop, as he needs just a few extra yards to top his rushing prop of 78.5 yards.
The Dallas defense is much improved this season, but that’s largely due to forcing turnovers. The Cowboys weren't great against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. While Mitchell is dealing with a knee injury and was limited in practice this week, he’s playing. And when he plays, he is a workhorse with at least 21 carries in five straight games.
If Mitchell gets that many on Sunday, he’s likely going to rush for close to 100 yards. The Rams have a much better run defense than Dallas does and Mitchell went for 85 yards against them last week. Mitchell also will get a boost with the return of Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams from injury.
Garoppolo Under 1.5 TDs (-105) & Over 0.5 INTs (-140)
This could be Garoppolo’s final game in a 49ers uniform, and I absolutely believe it will be if they lose – and I think they do. Of course, head coach Kyle Shanahan & Co. traded up to select quarterback Trey Lance at No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, and they aren’t going to sit Lance for a second straight season barring Jimmy G leading San Francisco to a Super Bowl title.
Dallas allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season, which was the seventh-fewest in the NFL. That defense led the league with 26 interceptions, topped by Trevon Diggs’ NFL-best 11. Those were the most of any player since 1981 when then-Cowboys rookie Everson Walls had 11.
As we mentioned above, the Cowboys are susceptible against the run and Shanahan is going to run the ball plenty barring the Niners falling way behind, which seems unlikely. Remember that Garoppolo is playing through a torn ligament and chipped bone in his right (throwing) thumb. He has had two picks in back-to-back games coming into the playoffs, and he had just one TD pass in three straight games. Garoppolo passed for fewer than two TDs in nine of his 15 starts.
Prescott longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-110)
Prescott ended the regular season with a bang by throwing five touchdown passes in Week 18 against the rival Philadelphia Eagles. While we need to discount that performance because Philly had nothing to play for and basically laid down, Prescott averaged 267.0 passing yards per game with 13 TDs and zero picks over his final four games.
In large part to an excellent pass rush led by Nick Bosa, the Niners were very good against the pass in allowing 206.5 yards per game. The unit’s kryptonite was deep throws, though, as the 49ers finished No. 30 in DVOA against deep passes. Prescott was Pro Football Focus’ No. 8-graded quarterback on deep throws as he completed 32 passes for 962 yards on attempts that traveled more than 20 yards downfield.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford had a long of 46 against San Francisco last week.
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49ers-Cowboys prop picks made on 1/14/2022 at 10:44 a.m. ET.