College Basketball Futures: Wooden Award Market Watch

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 29, 2022 5:13 AM EST • 2 min 26 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

LUBBOCK, TEXAS - JANUARY 08: Guard Ochai Agbaji #40 of the Kansas Jayhawks handles the ball during the first half of the college basketball game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena on January 08, 2022 in Lubbock, Texas. John E. Moore III/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by John E. Moore III / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The competition for the Wooden Award is heating up as we prepare for the beginning of February. Ochai Agbaji is the odds-on favorite, and he's closely followed by Jonathan Davis and Oscar Tshiebwe. Based on those odds, we determine where the value lies in Wooden Award futures picks.

After scoring 29 points at Kansas State and 37 against the vaunted Texas Tech defense, Agbaji's Wooden Award odds are getting shorter and shorter. He's one of the top scorers in college basketball, but something is amiss with his resume.

It's noteworthy that seven of the top 12 favorites for the award play in the Big Ten conference. From that group, the conference championship may determine who becomes the front-runner.

We examine the Wooden Award odds and where the value lies.

2022 Wooden Award Picks: Pretenders

Ochai Agbaji, G, Kansas

Though Agbaji has gained a lot of momentum due to his scoring output, he's lacking something in his game that could hurt him in the voting. Since 2011, only one player has won the Wooden Award without being ranked in KenPom's top 10 Player of the Year rankings. That was Zion Williamson in 2020, and it's easy to see how his efficiency was overlooked.

A second alarming aspect of Agbaji's chances is he doesn't appear on the ESPN top 50 list of player efficiency ratings for college basketball. When you combine those metrics with his price of +500, this is a sell in my opinion. Agbaji should be somewhere from +1500 to +2000.

Best Price: +500 via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel SportsbookRecommendation: Sell

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1485836660864479232

Jonathan Davis, G, Wisconsin

The Badgers sophomore guard is averaging 21.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Davis has an advantage over some of his fellow Big Ten competitors since Wisconsin is atop the conference standings and projected to finish in a three-way tie with Purdue and Illinois.

However, we're fading the number, not the player. Davis should be one of the Wooden Award finalists, but I believe a better number than +700 will emerge. Davis is by no means a runaway favorite.

Best Price: +700 via DraftKingsRecommendation: Fade

2022 Wooden Award Picks: Contender

Drew Timme, F, Gonzaga

Timme averaged 25.75 points in his first four games in the West Coast Conference. As long as he continues to play inferior teams in the WCC, his numbers will only get better.

He's ranked No. 3 in the KenPom Player of the Year rankings. However, just as I was contemplating him as a buy, he scored eight points against Loyola Marymount. I didn't like Timme earlier this year, but mostly because he was around a +300 favorite. Now that he comes with a price tag of +1000, I'm intrigued.

Best Price: +1000 via DraftKingsRecommendation: Watchlist

2022 Wooden Award Picks: Best Bet

Chet Holmgren, F, Gonzaga

Holmgren is averaging 16.8 points, nine rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game in conference play. He's ranked fifth in KenPom's Player of the Year rankings, one spot ahead of Davis. As with Timme, Holmgren will have a chance to pad his stats against WCC opponents in the final weeks. Considering Gonzaga occupies the No. 1 spot on KenPom, voters could choose Holmgren over Timme if they want to reward the nation's top team.

There's no way that +6500 is an appropriate number for a player on the top team in the country. He's ranked fifth in efficiency and projected to be the second pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. As for this number, I don't believe it'll get any longer and is likely to be shortened very soon.

FanDuel is sitting at +6500, while DraftKings has Holmgren at +4500. At +6500, it's easy to add him to your portfolio even if you don't believe he'll win. It's better to just eliminate the possibility that Holmgren may ruin your night when they present the Wooden Award, because he's certainly capable of doing so.

Best Price: +6500 via FanDuelRecommendation: Buy

https://twitter.com/ZagMBB/status/1486936290289283073

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com's community forums and betting tools.

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.