Villanova vs. Kansas: 2022 Final Four Picks and Odds

We’ve reached the Final Four of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. A battle between two blue blood programs and two marquee head coaches will decide one of the representatives for the National Championship. Check out our Villanova-Kansas picks for their Final Four clash.

In a year of college basketball that seemed wide open throughout much of the regular season, we have just one No. 1 seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament now that the Final Four has arrived. Kansas is the last top seed standing, but the Jayhawks will have their hands full in this semifinal game against head coach Jay Wright’s Villanova Wildcats.

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1508443800825483265

A trip to the National Championship Game is on the line. Which blue blood will advance to earn a spot in the title game against a representative from the ACC?

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s Final Four matchup between Villanova and Kansas (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds for Final Four

Villanova vs. Kansas Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Apr. 2, 6:09 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Villanova vs. Kansas Odds

Villanova vs. Kansas Odds Analysis

The line opened at Kansas -3 and has increased from there all the way to -4.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. Both public and sharp bets have contributed to pushing the line further toward Kansas, as 65% of the tickets and 83% of the cash is riding with the Jayhawks. Kansas is an even 19-19 against the spread on the season, while Villanova enters with a 20-15-2 ATS record.

The total for the game has stayed pretty steady after opening at 132.5, though it spiked up to 133 at DraftKings as of Wednesday night. Kansas has had a slight lean to the Over to the tune of 19-17-2 on the year. Villanova games have leaned toward the Under, with contests involving the Wildcats going 17-19-1 on the Over for the season.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1509183415773454343

Villanova vs. Kansas Picks

Villanova +4.5 (-110) ?????Under 133 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: North Carolina vs. Duke Picks

Villanova vs. Kansas ATS Pick

Villanova +4.5 (-110)

Kansas is a really good team, but according to the metrics, the Jayhawks really aren’t all that different from Villanova. Kansas is two spots higher in adjusted offensive efficiency, at seventh vs. ninth. Villanova, meanwhile, is actually one spot better than Kansas by defensive efficiency, 17th vs. 18th.

The margins are incredibly thin; where you’ll find a significant difference between the two sides is in the tempo discrepancy. Considering the way Villanova can slow things down and muddy up a basketball game with its suppressing defensive style, I see 4.5 points as too many to offer up to Wright’s Wildcats. 

SEE ALSO: Final Four Best Bets

Villanova has the No. 345 adjusted tempo in college basketball this season. That’s 14 spots from the bottom. Though Kansas runs one of the quicker tempos in the sport (No. 61), the Jayhawks are going to run into some trouble with that pace if they’re not shooting the lights out. Villanova challenges every possession defensively and does a quality job of leaning on its discipline to avoid giving up easy baskets. Against Houston, Villanova played its style to perfection to allow just 44 points to an extremely efficient Cougars offense.

SEE ALSO: Final Four Prop Bets

Kansas won’t slow things down the way the Cougars do, not without a fight. However, if the Wildcats can maintain the integrity of their preferred style in the face of a Kansas team that wants to try and run everybody it plays out of the gym, I believe Villanova could be poised to bring this down to the final possession.

That means a cover for the Wildcats and a potential outright win depending on how those final seconds unfold.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Villanova vs. Kansas O/U Pick

Under 133 (-110)

Though I like Villanova in the game, Kansas’ defensive aptitude is an underrated aspect that merits consideration when handicapping the total. Though Miami isn’t nearly the team that Villanova is, the Jayhawks' Elite Eight matchup saw the Hurricanes muster just 50 points against the Kansas defense.

Even in a circumstance where we have this wrong and instead of a meticulous defensive effort by the Wildcats, we get Kansas scoring to its typical norms in the mid-70s and beyond, I’m not sure Villanova has the ability to score with pace like the Jayhawks. Kansas taking control and winning in a range like 72-60 isn’t something I’m expecting, but even that kind of script would provide a decent chance to cash the Under.

Let’s discuss, though, a script where Villanova establishes the kind of pace I’m anticipating. The Wildcats have allowed points totals of 60, 61, 53 and 44 during this NCAA Tournament. They're locked down on defense more intently in each subsequent game. Though 'Nova hasn’t seen an offense during that stretch like the one the Jayhawks will present, I expect Wright’s team to make this game ugly. The Wildcats want to limit possessions and keep within striking distance.

Given I am expecting success for Villanova on that front, I like a game with a final score in the low-to-mid 60s. This will allow the Under to hit.

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Villanova-Kansas picks made 3/31/2022 at 12:09 a.m. ET.