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Dylan Disu #1 of the Texas Longhorns reacts after his made basket as we look at our best Xavier vs. Texas prediction
Dylan Disu #1 of the Texas Longhorns reacts after his made basket against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Wells Fargo Arena on March 18, 2023 in Des Moines, Iowa. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

Two-seed Texas and No. 3 Xavier have two of the most efficient offenses in the country, but will the former's edge on the defensive end be the difference in Friday's Sweet 16 matchup? Check out our Xavier vs. Texas prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Midwest region of the NCAA Tournament has been chalky to this point, with both the No. 2 Longhorns (28-8) and No. 3 Musketeers (27-9) advancing to the Sweet 16.

In a game between two sides that average nearly 160 combined points per game on the season, which will score enough to keep its tournament hopes alive?

Here is our best Xavier vs. Texas prediction (odds via Caesars and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Xavier vs. Texas odds

Xavier vs. Texas prediction

Texas -4 (-110 via Caesars, PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though they fell short of the cover against Penn State in a five-point win in the Round of 32, the Texas Longhorns have been largely dominating their recent competition. Over the last month, Texas is 6-2 with back-to-back road losses to talented Baylor and TCU teams in that span. The Longhorns rank fourth in the nation in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank over that stretch, winning the types of games against quality opponents that foreshadowed the potential for a deep run into March for this group.

Xavier ranks 20th in T-Rank over the same period as the high-powered Musketeers are occasionally prone to lapses in their game. Both Kennesaw State and DePaul took Xavier to the brink just within the past few weeks.

KenPom gives the edge to the Longhorns over the Musketeers, as well, with the teams ranked fifth and 15th in the country, respectively. Texas is the picturesque definition of balance as one of three teams to rank among the nation’s top 15 teams in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

The consistency of the Longhorns down the stretch draws me toward them in this matchup. The Longhorns can exploit some of Xavier’s holes defensively (64th in adjusted defensive efficiency) in ways that will make it difficult for the Musketeers to mount a comeback if they should fall behind early in the action.

Xavier vs. Texas best odds

Caesars, PointsBet: Texas -4 (-110)

Texas -4.5Texas -4.5Texas -4.5Texas -1.5Texas -1.5

There might have been value on the Over before we saw the number climb multiple points, but rather than risk catching that steam by betting the total, I feel more comfortable with the friendly movement we’ve seen on the spread with the Longhorns down to -4 at Caesars and PointsBet.

This hook feels valuable in a cover that could come down to late free throws, so I’m happy to accept the standard -110 odds at Caesars or PointsBet to get Texas to -4. Bettors looking to maximize their return on investment, though, would do well to take the Longhorns -4.5 at BetMGM (-105) or FanDuel (-106).

There’s no upside to betting this play at DraftKings, as every other book offers either a better line or better odds.

Xavier vs. Texas odds analysis

Texas opened as a 4.5-point favorite over Xavier. We’ve seen that number remain pretty constant across our best sportsbooks, though a couple of books recently moved it to -4. Around 53% of point-spread wagers have sided with the Longhorns.

The total opened at 147.5 and has climbed to range from 148.5 to 149.5 across most sports betting sites. The public has simmered on betting the points, though, as 56% of wagers have come in on Under.

Xavier vs. Texas game info

  • Date: Friday, March 24, 9:45 ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO

Xavier-Texas pick made 03/23/2023 at 6:45 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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