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San Diego State vs. Furman Predictions, Odds & Picks: March Madness Sweet 16 Berth on the Line

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 18, 2023 8:38 AM EDT • 2 min 47 sec read.

Matt Bradley of the San Diego State Aztecs as we look at our best San Diego State vs. Furman prediction.
Matt Bradley of the San Diego State Aztecs layups against Jaylon Scott of the Charleston Cougars in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Amway Center on Mar. 16, 2023 in Orlando, Florida. Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images via AFP.

The Furman Paladins pulled off one of the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets, and they'll now take on the San Digo State Aztecs with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. Here is our best San Diego State vs. Furman prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Paladins were a popular upset pick heading into Thursday's game against the Virginia Cavaliers, so while not many are surprised they won, it’s how they prevailed that was shocking. They needed a miracle, and that's exactly what they got thanks to guard Kihei Clark’s errant pass. The turnover led to a JP Pegues three-pointer that sealed the victory with just seconds remaining.

Now, the Paladins take on another very good defensive team. The Aztecs just held the College of Charleston Cougars to 57 points Thursday. This season, the Aztecs allowed only 63.6 points per game, the NCAAB's 25th-best. Can they slow down the Paladins?

Here is our best San Diego State vs. Furman prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

San Diego State vs. Furman odds

San Diego State vs. Furman prediction

Under 138 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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The Paladins got very hot in the second half against the Cavaliers. They had just 43 points with 8:27 remaining, then rattled off 25 in the late portions of the game to secure the victory. The performance showed how dangerous this team is on offense, even when their leading scorer, guard Mike Bothwell, was on the bench having fouled out.

Check out our March Madness best bets and all of our March Madness picks for Saturday

However, we like the Under in this matchup for a few reasons. First is how good the Aztecs’ defense is. They held a team averaging 79.6 points per game to just 57 Thursday. And the good news for the Aztecs is that the Paladins play a very similar style. 

Second is the Paladins didn’t shoot the ball well for most of the game against the Cavaliers. They had a couple of nice stretches, but mostly, they were pretty average until they changed up their defensive approach. The Aztecs play a swarming style of defense, and they know what to expect from the Paladins’ D in this one.

This number is two or three points too high. With the teams having very little rest between matchups, expect some tired legs from both. This will especially hurt the Paladins who are a jump-shooting team.

San Diego State vs. Furman best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 138Under 137.5Under 137.5Under 138Under 137.5
-110-105-110-110-110

DraftKings and Caesars each offer a number of 138 for a price of -110. The other major sportsbooks still offer 137.5, and while FanDuel has a better price of -105, it's worth taking the extra half-point for the slight price increase just to give yourself a chance to push.

As for whether to wager at DraftKings or Caesars, there's no difference between the two, so the choice is yours.

San Diego State vs. Furman odds analysis

The spread opened with the Aztecs favored by 5.5, and it seems like the oddsmakers made a perfect line. Bettors are split nearly 50/50 on who they think will cover with 56% of the betting action backing the popular March Madness underdog.

The total opened at 137.5, and went up to 138 at two of the five major books. This movement happened despite 67% of bettors backing the Under. Expect this line to drop before tipoff Saturday. Make sure you get in before it gets below 136.

San Diego State vs. Furman game info

  • Date: Saturday, March 18, 12:10 PM
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Amway Center, Orlando, FL

San Diego State vs. Furman pick made 3/17/2023 at 10:47 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.