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Sir'Jabari Rice of the Texas Longhorns drives to the basket against Adam Kunkel of the Xavier Musketeers during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at T-Mobile Center on Mar. 24, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Sir'Jabari Rice of the Texas Longhorns drives to the basket against Adam Kunkel of the Xavier Musketeers during the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at T-Mobile Center on Mar. 24, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

The No. 2 Texas Longhorns face the No. 5 Miami Hurricanes on Sunday. Read on for our best Miami vs. Texas prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

With interim head coach Rodney Terry at the helm, the Texas Longhorns (29-8) can cut down the nets at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City for the second time this month after doing so in the Big 12 tournament. Texas recorded a pair of double-digit wins in the tourney and rides a seven-game win streak.

Miami, in the Elite Eight for the second year in a row, stand in the Longhorns’ way of a trip to Houston. The Hurricanes (28-7) come off a 89-75 upset win over top-seeded Houston in the Sweet 16, and oddsmakers once again counted them out ahead of Sunday’s showdown.

Here is our best Miami vs. Texas prediction (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Miami-Texas prop picks.

Miami vs. Texas odds

Miami vs. Texas prediction

Under 150 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

On the surface, taking an Under with two teams that rank in the top 100 in pace doesn’t make a lot of sense. Especially when most analytical websites project Over 150, including Ken Pomeroy’s projection of a 79-74 win for Texas.

ShotQuality has this game finishing well below the total, however, with a projected final of 71.6-65 in the Longhorns’ favor. That's 13.4 points of value on Caesars' line of 150. For what it's worth, ShotQuality is 33-14-1 on Under bets over the last 14 days.

Let’s also keep in mind how much different Texas looked on defense lately. According to Bart Torvik’s customizable ranks, the Longhorns are a college basketball second in adjusted defensive efficiency during a win streak dating back to March 3. They're 36th in adjusted offensive efficiency over that span, as well.

Texas knows how to avoid turning games into a track meet when necessary, just look at its 66-60 victory over TCU during the Big 12 semifinals. UT also gets a majority of its points (54.8%) on 2-pointers, so this team is unlikely to scorch the nets from long range.

With a trip to Houston on the line, Terry’s bench should rely on its top 10 defense to get the job done against a talented Miami backcourt. Play this three-star pick down to 149 before focusing on the Hurricanes’ team total instead.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Miami vs. Texas best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
149.5149.5149.5150149.5
-110-110-105-110-110

Four of our five top-rated sportsbooks agree on this total at 149.5, with Caesars the lone exception at 150. That's where we'll place this wager to close out an epic weekend of college hoops.

Player prop markets weren't available at the time of this writing, but if you have a hard time taking this Under, look at Sir’Jabari Rice’s assist prop. 

The Texas guard cleared his assist prop of 1.5 in two of the three NCAA Tournament games so far. Rice has three assists in three of his past four games. There's value on his Over (at 1.5) once again in Sunday’s matchup against Miami.

Miami vs. Texas odds analysis

Texas opened as a 3.5-point favorite for a brief moment Friday evening, but the line since settled at 4 and 4.5 as of Saturday morning. The total started at 151 before dropping down to 149.5 and 150 within hours.

So far this season, Miami is 21-14 ATS and 18-16-1 to the Under. Texas is 19-17-1 ATS and 18-17-2 to the Under. Neither team failed to cover a closing spread at this point in the NCAA Tournament.

Miami vs. Texas game info

  • Date: Sunday, March 26, 5:05 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.

Miami-Texas pick made 3/25/2023 at 11:26 a.m. ET.

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