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Jaime Jaquez Jr. of the UCLA Bruins is introduced before a college basketball game at the Xfinity Center. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images/AFP.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. of the UCLA Bruins is introduced before a college basketball game at the Xfinity Center. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images/AFP.

Though the Bulldogs and Bruins both have Final Four-caliber rosters, the dream must die for one team in the Sweet 16. Read on for our Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

The matchup between No. 3-seed Gonzaga (30-5) and No. 2-seed UCLA (31-5) is arguably the most compelling on-paper matchup of the entire upcoming round of the NCAA Tournament. Two teams ranked inside the KenPom top seven overall will square off for a spot in the Elite Eight.

Those who backed the Bulldogs in their last tournament game endured one of the most gruesome bad beats you’ll ever see in their win over TCU. Will Gonzaga come up short on the spread again in the Sweet 16?

Here is our best Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Gonzaga vs. UCLA odds

Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction

UCLA -1.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

UCLA has a substantial edge over Gonzaga in terms of performance against the spread this season. The Bruins have covered at a rate of 61.8%, going 21-13-2 ATS on the campaign.

The Bulldogs have gone 13-20-1 ATS on the season. They have struggled in particular to beat the spread in neutral-site games, going 3-8 ATS, under those circumstances, this season. In fact, when you isolate non-home games out of the sample, Gonzaga is a startling 5-15 ATS on the year.

Check out our March Madness best bets and expert picks for the Sweet 16

With both rosters featuring such experienced and talented players, parsing out an edge is a difficult proposition. But in addition to the season-long trends favoring the Bruins, I trust UCLA’s guard play to get them through this one.

Even without a field goal from Tyger Campbell against Northwestern, UCLA managed to advance to the Sweet 16 on the strength of a 24-point performance from Jaime Jaquez Jr. Gonzaga easily won its last matchup against UCLA in November of 2021, but it had multiple NBA guys in that game who are no longer on the roster.

Not to discredit the presence of Drew Timme, but I question whether the Zags have the horses to match UCLA on the outside in this affair.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA best odds

DraftKings (-110)

UCLA -1.5UCLA -1.5UCLA -1.5UCLA -1.5UCLA -1.5

Good luck hunting for an edge on the odds or lines with this matchup as the current listings across our recommended sportsbooks are identical on both the spread and total. At each book, you’ll find standard -110 odds on UCLA -1.5.

We like the Bruins on the spread provided the line remains within a single possession, so play this line to -2.5 with three-star confidence.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA odds analysis

UCLA opened as a 1.5-point favorite and has remained at that number across each of our recommended sportsbooks into Wednesday afternoon. As of Thursday morning, betting action on the spread is split 50/50.

The total opened at 145.5 and has stayed there across our affiliated sportsbooks. As of Thursday morning, 62% of wagers have come in on the Over.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA game info

  • Date: Thursday, March 23, 2023, 9:45 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Gonzaga-UCLA pick made 03/22/2023 at 3:25 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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