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Arizona State vs. TCU Predictions, Odds & Picks: Can Winner Begin Their March Madness Run?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: March 17, 2023 10:16 AM EDT • 2 min 47 sec read.

DJ Horne of the Arizona State Sun Devils shoots against Trey Pettigrew and Tre Coleman of the Nevada Wolf Pack during the First Four game of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at University of Dayton Arena on Mar. 15, 2023 in Dayton, Ohio.
DJ Horne of the Arizona State Sun Devils shoots against Trey Pettigrew and Tre Coleman of the Nevada Wolf Pack during the First Four game of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at University of Dayton Arena on Mar. 15, 2023 in Dayton, Ohio. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The West region's 11th-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils face the sixth-seeded TCU Horned Frogs Friday after surviving the First Four. Read on for our best Arizona State vs. TCU prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

The final game of the opening round pits Arizona State and TCU against each other for an interesting nightcap Friday in Denver. The Sun Devils (23-12) come off a 98-73 thumping of Nevada in Wednesday’s First Four matchup in Dayton, where they went 11-for-21 from 3-point range.

TCU (21-12), meanwhile, lost two of its last three entering the NCAA Tournament and didn’t live up to preseason expectations. The Horned Frogs have dealt with injuries, but remain shorthanded after big man Eddie Lampkin Jr. left the program last week. 

With a potential meeting against Gonzaga on deck, which team will prevail and advance to the Round of 32?

Here is our best Arizona State vs. TCU prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Arizona State vs. TCU odds

Arizona State vs. TCU prediction

Arizona State +6 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The market has too much faith in this TCU team. My line for this game is actually 4, and that might give the Horned Frogs too much credit. Ken Pomeroy projects a 72-69 victory for TCU, while BartTorvik is even shorter with a 72-70 final score projection.

Fading the Horned Frogs’ inept offense with this big of a spread was an easy choice. TCU is lethal in transition, with point guard Mike Miles Jr. leading the show. The Horned Frogs rank in the 72nd percentile in transition offense, per Synergy Sports Technology. The Sun Devils are a respectable 64th percentile in transition defense.

Check out our March Madness best bets for Friday! Our Mike Spector went 3-1 on Thursday's games.

If Arizona State takes care of the ball and avoids turning this into a track meet, head coach Bobby Hurley’s squad should be in good shape. Fortunately, the Sun Devils rank inside the top 75 in offensive turnover rate and their 61st-ranked average Division I experience bodes well for this game. 

The reason why stopping TCU in transition is so critical is because this team can’t get much offensive production without it. The Horned Frogs rank in the 32nd percentile with 0.866 points per possession in the half court. They're 340th in 3-point percentage, the worst clip of all 68 NCAA Tournament teams.

Arizona State can’t shoot as well as it did against Nevada, but TCU won’t either. The Sun Devils should stay within striking distance for much of this nightcap and don’t be surprised when they pull off the outright upset.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Arizona State vs. TCU best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+6+5.5+5.5+6+5.5
-110-102-110-110-110

This line sits between 5.5 and 6 at all top-rated sportsbooks. Place this bet at DraftKings because it opens the door for more parlay options, when player props become available. This four-star pick is playable at anything +5 or better.

Arizona State vs. TCU odds analysis

TCU opened as a 6-point favorite, but the consensus line is -5 as of Friday morning with 62% of the action on the underdog Sun Devils. The total is at 141.5 after opening at 140. There's a chance these lines move over the next 24 hours, so keep an eye on what the market does.

Arizona State is 16-18-1 against the spread and 18-17 to the Over. TCU is 16-16-1 ATS and 17-16 to the Under.

Arizona State vs. TCU game info

  • Date: Friday, March 17, 10:05 p.m. ET
  • TV: truTV
  • Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Arizona State-TCU pick made 3/15/2023 at 10:26 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
After graduating with a journalism degree from the University of Kansas in 2017, Shane Jackson covered college sports for a few years before moving to Las Vegas to pursue a career in sports betting. He created sports betting content for WynnBET and served as a sports gambling content director for Bet Chicago Sports. Shane’s favorite sports to watch and bet on are NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, WNBA, and golf. Follow Shane on Twitter (@SJacksonBET) to get access to all of his betting analysis.