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Top College Basketball Picks for Saturday

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 20, 2021 6:51 AM EST • 2 min 48 sec read.

DES MOINES, IA - FEBRUARY 10: Roman Penn #12 of the Drake Bulldogs drives the ball as Nate Heise #0 of the Northern Iowa Panthers puts pressure on in the first half of play at Knapp Center on February 10, 2021 in Des Moines, Iowa. David Purdy/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by David Purdy / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

We are in the midst of one of the most exciting times in the non-conference schedule, as many early-season tournaments begin this weekend. The biggest headliner is the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic at Mohegan Sun, which will feature four games with four opponents each ranked in the top 18 in the country, making for our top college basketball picks.

Today's column analyzes one of the high-profile games at Mohegan Sun and takes a look at two other under-the-radar games featuring promising mid-majors.

Here are my top picks for Saturday's college basketball schedule (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top College Basketball Picks

Drake -4.5 (-110) vs. Richmond ???Purdue -6 (-110) vs. North Carolina ????Army +3.5 (-110) vs. La Salle ???

SEE ALSO: All College Basketball Picks

College Basketball Picks and Predictions

Drake -4.5 (-110) vs. Richmond ???

This matchup between Drake and Richmond is a fascinating battle of two of the country's best mid-major programs. Guard Roman Penn is appointment television and is the engine that makes Drake go. The Bulldogs are 22-2 straight up in their last 24 games with Penn in the lineup and he is off to a fantastic start, shooting 66.7 percent from the field and connecting on half of his 3-point shots.

Along with Penn, freshman guard Tucker Devries is filling in the sixth-man role admirably, as he has averaged 10.5 points per game this season. Drake is one of the most balanced offensive teams in the country, with nine players averaging 6.5 PPG or better and seven players averaging at least 19 minutes.

While Richmond has two solid wins over NC Central and Georgia State, the Spiders surprisingly had no answers defensively in a quasi-home loss to Utah State. In a game against Drake that may be close late, Richmond's 63 percent free-throw shooting (291st in the country) could be its undoing.

Purdue -6 (-110) vs. North Carolina ????

In a hyped matchup of two of the sport's most storied programs, only one of these teams looks capable of cutting down the nets. Purdue has scored at least 92 points in each of its first three games, which is more impressive considering the slow pace at which opponents like Bellarmine and Indiana State play. However, the Boilermakers' experience with playing an opponent that likes to get up-and-down in Wright State (seventh in adjusted tempo) will have them well-prepared to face the Tar Heels.

If UNC had a frontline similar to many of Roy Williams' old teams, this would be a fascinating matchup. However, with how the Tar Heels roster is currently constructed, they will have no answer for Purdue's massive frontline. The Boilermakers' 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey and 6-foot-10 forward Trevion Williams are matchup nightmares, and Purdue has also gotten solid contributions from 6-foot-10 freshman Caleb Furst off the bench. North Carolina's Armando Bacot is the only big man on the roster strong enough to bang with Edey and Williams, as Brady Manek is not known for his post defense. Thus, foul trouble could be an issue for two players that UNC relies on for scoring.

Purdue's two covers have come by more than 16 points a game, while UNC has failed to cover the spread in each of its first three games. This one could get ugly with the Tar Heels facing a considerable step up in competition today.

Army +3.5 (-110) vs. La Salle ???

La Salle is off to a rocky start with a 1-2 record despite not facing any of KenPom's top 150 teams. The Explorers' games have been close, with two overtime losses and a three-point victory at home against Albany. While some will say that experience will help them in a tight game, we prefer to fade the team that has not consistently closed games out late.

Army's Achilles heel to this point is turnovers, as they have come on 22.9 percent of possessions. While La Salle turns opponents over on 24.3 percent of their possessions, nothing else jumps off the page defensively, and that end of the floor is why the team is widely projected to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10.

The Black Knights are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games, while La Salle has covered one of its last four. Look for Army to cover this number, and possibly win outright.

Top College Basketball Picks made 11/20/2021 at 7:26 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.