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Best NBA Parlays Today: Picks, Predictions for Thursday's Game 1

Jon Metler

Last Updated: June 1, 2023 7:03 PM EDT • 3 min 25 sec read.

Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat dunks against the Atlanta Hawks as we look at our NBA parlay picks for Tuesday
Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat dunks against the Atlanta Hawks during the Eastern Conference First Round at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images via AFP.

Will Jimmy Butler transform into 'Himmy' Butler and maintain his scorching scoring streak in these NBA Playoffs, or will the feared Under bet be the winning side? Jon Metler shares his favorite NBA same-game parlay picks for Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets using the latest NBA odds. 

It would be awesome if I could offer you three alternate Over bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals in this same-game parlay. However, I'm afraid the current market conditions at our best NBA betting sites aren't in favor of Over bets. Despite the thrill that three Overs would bring on a Thursday night, most player props are leaning toward the Under.

My primary objective is to assist you in achieving three green checkmarks and boosting your bankroll, so let's focus on some Under bets! 🙃

Here are our NBA SGP picks for Thursday (odds via FanDuel).

Thursday's NBA SGP picks

GamePropsCombined Odds
Heat-NuggetsButler Under 26.5 points, Murray Under 25.5 points, Porter Over 15.5 points+543

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Heat vs. Nuggets odds

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NBA SGP predictions: Heat vs. Nuggets

Jimmy Butler Under 26.5 points vs. Nuggets (+106)

I've taken a shot at playing the Under on Jimmy Butler's points prop with my NBA best bets before, and let's just say it didn't go as planned. He ended up costing us a few units.

However, that won't deter me from capitalizing on some promising numbers I've come across for Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at our best sports betting apps. You already know the story: Butler logged heavy minutes throughout a grueling seven-game series, nursing a troublesome ankle, and now he's facing the challenge of playing at altitude in Denver.

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Butler is expected to score 26.9 points against the Nuggets on Thursday according to projections. That has me eyeing an alternate Under on Butler's points prop. Based on this projection, we can price the Under 26.5 points at -106. This implies an expected value of 6% for the +106 price point at FanDuel. On the flip side, the same projection prices the Under 27.5 points at -129, but it's trading at -122 on FanDuel. This gives us an expected value of 3%. So, by going after the alternate Under, we're essentially doubling our expected value.

Jamal Murray Under 25.5 points vs. Heat (+100)

I placed this bet as a straight bet in our NBA best bets at -104, but guess what? You can actually get an even better number right now at FanDuel, at +100, than when I made the bet. Surprising, right? I expected to see more movement on this line at FanDuel, but hey, I'd still recommend taking it as a straight bet regardless.

Now, let's talk about Murray. According to projections, he's expected to score 24.3 points against the Heat. This allows us to price the Under 25.5 points at -140. Our projection reveals a significant gap between our price and the market price, which could raise a red flag, especially considering the lack of line movement. However, the Under is trading at -130 at Pinnacle, which is much closer to the price our projection suggests.

Despite the market's lack of movement at FanDuel, there are still compelling reasons to believe that taking the Under at +100 is a strong bet. Our projections, along with the Pinnacle price, suggest that there's value in this wager. 

Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points vs. Heat (-118)

If you happened to read my NBA Finals predictions article, it'll all make sense when I say I hope that Porter surpasses this total with at least six 3-pointers on Thursday. Now, when it comes to Porter's odds, FanDuel isn't offering the most favorable price at -118. You can actually find a better price at BetMGM, where they have the Over trading at -105. However, FanDuel does have the best pricing for the other two legs involving Murray and Butler.

For some action on Nikola Jokic on Thursday night, our Shane Jackson has you covered in his Heat vs. Nuggets predictions.

Porter is expected to score 17.3 points against the Heat on Thursday according to projections. This allows us to price the Over 15.5 points at -135. Now, some might argue that with a projection of 17.3 points, it's worth considering the alternate Over of 16.5 points, which offers plus money. I agree but upon double-checking the numbers, I found that the expected value on the Over 15.5 points was 1% higher.

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  Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.  

NBA player prop picks made 06/01/2023 at 9:00 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.