Canada vs. Spain Prediction, Odds, Picks: Men's Olympic Basketball, Aug. 2
Canada has gotten off to a perfect start to remain as the second favorite in the men's Olympic basketball odds. It'll have a chance to clinch Group A when it faces Spain on Friday at 11:15 a.m. ET at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Canada is favored by 9.5 points to beat Spain across our best sports betting sites behind the magnificent play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the early favorites by the NBA MVP odds.
Yet the Canadian frontcourt is a bigger factor in our Canada vs. Spain prediction and expert picks for this Olympic men's basketball showdown.
Canada vs. Spain predictions for Friday
Canada vs. Spain odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Spain +9.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over 168.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
- Santi Aldama Over 6.5 rebounds (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Prediction: Spain +9.5 ⭐⭐⭐
I've been high on Canada all tournament long, and I still think this group is the best-equipped to challenge Team USA for the gold medal. Yet this is a tricky matchup on paper for the Canadians in its final game of Group A.
While Canada features the best perimeter defense in this tournament, Spain is much more reliant on its frontcourt with Santi Aldama (7-0) and Willy Hernangomez (6-11) complementing the playmaking of Sergio Llull (6-3) and Lorenzo Brown (6-5).
Canada is yet to beat a team by more than 10 points in this tournament, and I suspect the Spanish will make this close in the end ... even if the Canadians ultimately prevail.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Prediction: Over 168.5 ⭐⭐⭐
This Canada team is known for its defense, but it's also been pretty prolific offensively, scoring 93 points against Australia after an 86-point effort against Greece.
I don't see that changing against a Spanish roster with so-so defenders, though I think Spain will have a serious advantage inside with Aldama and Hernangomez leading the way. If those two keep attacking the rim, this game could easily be a "first to 90" type of affair.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Prediction: Santi Aldama Over 6.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Surely you saw this one coming. I'm high on Spain's frontcourt having an impact in this game, and that starts with Aldama.
The 7-foot versatile big leads his team with 23 points and 30 minutes per game, but he's had a dominant impact on the glass with 8.5 rebounds per game, too. That includes a 19-point, 12-rebound effort in Tuesday's win over Greece.
Aldama is simply too big and too skilled to be stopped against a weak Canada frontcourt, and I'm surprised our best sportsbooks haven't upped his rebounding total as a result.
Odds: -113 | Implied probability: 53.05%
Canada vs. Spain odds & game info
| Canada | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -400 | +360 |
| Spread | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | Over 168.5 (-110) | Under 168.5 (-110) |
- When: Friday, Aug. 2
- Tip-off: 11:15 a.m. ET
- Where: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Lille, France)
- How to watch: Peacock (streaming)
- Favorite: Canada -9.5 (-110)
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