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Brazil vs. USA Prediction, Odds, Picks: Men's Olympic Basketball, Aug. 6

Rob Paul

Last Updated: August 5, 2024 3:07 PM EDT • 2 min 46 sec read.

United States guard LeBron James passes against Puerto Rico. We're backing James in our Brazil vs. USA Prediction.
United States guard LeBron James passes against Puerto Rico. Photo by John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

Nobody seems capable of stopping Team USA as it battles to win a fifth straight gold.

The Americans are a major favorite by the Olympic men's basketball odds and figure to cruise to a win in the quarterfinals thanks in part to the ageless LeBron James, whom we highlight in our Brazil vs. USA prediction.

Team USA is a 27-point favorite in its matchup against Brazil on Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. ET, but that doesn't mean Brazil's star won't put up impressive numbers of his own.

Brazil vs. USA predictions for Tuesday

Brazil vs. USA odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • LeBron James Over 6.5 assists (+105) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Kevin Durant Under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Bruno Caboclo Over 7.5 rebounds (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Prediction: LeBron James Over 6.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐

In what is likely his last Olympics, James has proven to be the heart and soul of Team USA's star-studded basketball roster. He's still arguably the best player on the team at the age of 39, and his playmaking instincts have popped in the Americans' three Group C wins.

Taking on an overmatched Brazilian squad, James may not need to do much scoring to lock this win in, but you can bet he'll make some pretty passes while racking up the international apples - remember a pass leading to a made free throw counts as an assist in FIBA rules. 

James leads the U.S. in assists and is averaging 7.3 per game. He's already gone Over 6.5 assists in two of three games, which is why I love the value here with the plus-money odds. A $10 winning bet pays a $10.50 profit.

The only concern would be USA blowing Brazil out of the water and James playing minimal minutes. However, we just saw him finish with eight assists in under 18 minutes against Puerto Rico.

Odds: +105 | Implied probability: 48.78%

Prediction: Kevin Durant Under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐

Maybe the most impressive performance of the men's Olympic basketball tournament so far was when Durant came off the bench against Serbia and proceeded to go 8-for-9 from the floor with 23 points in under 17 minutes.

While that proved Durant is still among the best basketball players on the planet, Team USA hasn't needed him to keep up that pace. In the two games that followed, Durant's averaged just 18.5 points, rebounds, and assists per game. Despite being among the top minute-getters in both games, he took just 13 combined shots.

I think it will be much of the same against Brazil with the Americans not needing vintage Durant. And unlike with group play, there's no need to run up the score in the quarterfinals.

A $10 winning bet on Durant to hit the Under pays an $8 profit.

Odds: -125 | Implied probability: 55.56%

Prediction: Bruno Caboclo Over 7.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

He's no longer two years away from being two years away. In fact, Caboclo is living up to his moniker of "Brazilian KD." Between his slim frame and scoring prowess, the 28-year-old did give off some major Durant vibes in Brazil's win over Japan.

But I'm not focusing on his scoring against the USA, even with him coming off a 33-point performance. Instead, I think Caboclo should be capable of hauling in some rebounds with those go-go gadget arms of his - they did help him rip down 17 boards against Japan.

Obviously, cleaning the glass against Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, and Anthony Davis isn't easy, but Caboclo will likely play around 30 minutes and is Brazil's best rebounder. He should be in there until the end, too, when the USA will likely take its foot off the gas somewhat.

If Caboclo finishes with eight boards, a $10 bet pays a $7.69 profit.

Odds: -130 | Implied probability: 56.52%

Brazil vs. USA odds & game info

BrazilUSA
Moneyline+3000-10000
Spread+27 (-112)-27 (-108)
Over/UnderOver 184.5 (-112)Under 184.5 (-108)
  • When: Tuesday, Aug. 6
  • Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: AccorHotels Arena (Paris)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock (U.S.), CBC (Canada)
  • Favorite: USA -27 (-108)

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Written By:
Rob Paul
Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.