NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Thursday, Oct. 29

There are only three games on the slate, so while everyone's busy betting football, my NBA best bets today target three lines that I believe are mispriced. We're attacking both 8 p.m. ET games, with two bets on Kings vs. Pelicans and a plus-money spread in Cavaliers vs. Hawks.

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Oct. 29)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Picks submitted: Oct. 29 at 10:47 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.

Total wagered: 3.03 units | Max profit: 3 units

Best NBA bet today

Kings vs. Pelicans prediction: Pelicans -5.5 (-115)

I've bet the Kings this season, and I've watched their games - I've seen enough.

They rank last in the West with a -17.9 second-half net rating, compared to -10.2 for the Pelicans. So, even if this game were tied at halftime, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the Pelicans to win by seven or more points. The Kings just can't close out games, even when they're playing well in the first half.

And it's not like they were a great team last season, so we can't say it's just recency bias. Sacramento ranked last in the West with a -9.7 net rating in 2025-26.

Play to: -6.5 (-109)

More NBA picks & player props for Thursday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Kings vs. Pelicans prediction: Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 rebounds (+108)

I hate to keep banging on this point, but the Kings have played poorly this season, and their rebounding has been no exception.

The Kings rank 13th out of 15 teams in the West with a 47.1% rebounding percentage. The Pelicans, meanwhile, rank sixth in the conference with a 50.8% rebounding percentage. Dejounte Murray's 14.8% defensive rebounding percentage makes him the fourth-most productive guard in the West at grabbing boards, so I would give him about a 50-50 chance of recording six-plus rebounds.

Meanwhile, FanDuel has this prop priced at -118.

Play to: Over 5.5 (+101)

Cavaliers vs. Hawks prediction: Cavaliers -1.5 (+105)

While the Hawks' defense looks good on paper - Dyson Daniels and Lu Dort were both named first-team All-Defense two seasons ago - the results haven't lined up with expectations.

The Hawks have the fifth-worst defensive rating over the last three games (better than just the Nets, Bulls, Suns, and Kings). With their defense underperforming so aggressively lately, I can't bet on them against a Cavaliers side that has the sixth-best offensive rating over that same span.

In their only game against the Hawks with both Donovan Mitchell and James Harden playing, the Cavaliers won 122-116 in Cleveland April 8.

Play to: -1.5 (-102)