Baylor vs. UCF Prediction: Week 9 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Oct. 30)
My Baylor vs. UCF prediction focuses on why the defenses have the advantage Friday.
UCF is a 1.5-point betting favorite after beating previously undefeated BYU last week. While it's tempting to take UCF to win against a much worse opponent, the risk of a potential big-win hangover is real, which is why I believe the Under is the safest play. Kickoff from Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando, Fla., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Baylor vs. UCF picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 9 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor +1.5 | -112 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to profit 0.45 units |
| Under 47.5 | -105 via DraftKings | 2 units to profit 1.91 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 27 at 3:15 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: +2.36 units
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Baylor vs. UCF prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 47.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Baylor's offense has struggled, but the defense has been excellent this season. The unit is allowing just 16.1 points per game and 4.64 yards per play, which both rank third-best in the Big 12. The run defense has been particularly good, holding teams to just 104.1 rushing yards per game. Additionally, Baylor leads the Big 12 in opponent yards per carry, giving up just 2.86.
Even after defeating BYU last week, UCF ranks 15th in the Big 12 in total offense. The Knights are averaging just 370.3 yards per game and 5.79 yards per play. UCF ranks 10th in the Big 12 in rushing offense, and I don't expect the ground game to get going in such a tough matchup. That means UCF will have to rely on its passing attack, which ranks 14th in the conference.
📡 SBR Edge
Red zone issues are going to play a big role Friday. Baylor is the second-worst red-zone team in the Big 12, scoring on just 23 of 30 trips, and managing touchdowns just 15 times. While UCF has the second-best red-zone scoring percentage in the Big 12, they've only been inside the 20 28 times, which is tied for 10th-most in the conference.
UCF's defense can shut down Baylor's offense
Baylor is averaging 29.1 points per game, but that average doesn't tell the whole story. This is a team that scored 55 points against Arizona State, 44 against Prairie View A&M, and 36 against Louisiana Tech. In its other four games, Baylor has scored 24 or less, failing to reach 17 twice.
UCF has been part of some high-scoring games of late, but the Knights' last three contests have been against two of the top-four scoring teams in the Big 12 and BYU. This is a defense that held a healthy Pittsburgh offense to just 12 points.
Baylor ranks fourth in the conference in passing yards per game. However, that average is strictly because of how often Baylor throws the ball. When it comes to yards per attempt, Baylor is averaging just 6.8, which is tied for second-worst in the conference.
Play to: Under 45.5
Score prediction: Baylor 21, UCF 20
Live Baylor vs. UCF odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Baylor vs. UCF page.
Baylor vs. UCF opening odds
- Moneyline: Baylor +116 | UCF -136
- Spread: Baylor +2.5 (-108) | UCF -2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Baylor vs. UCF weather
Precipitation is expected during the day in Orlando, but the weather is expected to clear by kickoff. With wind gusts of just 16 mph, as long as the rain passes before the game starts, the weather shouldn't impact this contest.
Latest Baylor vs. UCF injuries
Baylor:
- None
UCF:
- Alonza Barnett III, QB - GTD
How to watch Baylor vs. UCF: Week 9
- Date: Friday, Oct. 30
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Fla.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
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