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Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets drives to the basket against Max Strus of the Miami Heat during the first quarter in Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center as we look at our Heat-Nuggets pick.
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets drives to the basket against Max Strus of the Miami Heat during the first quarter in Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

Can the Denver Nuggets close out the NBA Finals in Game 5 and win their first championship or will the Miami Heat send the series back to South Beach? Our Heat-Nuggets prediction is based on the top NBA odds from our best sports betting apps.

It’s been all Denver Nuggets through four games of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets hold a commanding 3-1 series lead and play in front of the home crowd Monday at Ball Arena. The Miami Heat handed Denver its only home loss of the playoffs in Game 2 of the series, and they’ll look to rekindle some of that magic Monday to hold on and fight another day.

Here is our best Heat-Nuggets prediction (odds via our best sports betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Nuggets prediction

Nuggets -10 (+100 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐⭐

A double-digit spread in an NBA Finals game? The line for this one is sitting at 8.5 at all of our best NBA betting sites, but we’re selling 1.5 points for a more profitable payday.

Denver has been favored in every game of the series while covering in three of four. The Nuggets earned a double-digit victory in all three wins, and Denver has outscored Miami by a combined 36 points in the series. 

The Nuggets' lone loss came in Game 2, but the Heat shot way over their heads with a 17-of-35 night from beyond the arc. The Nuggets held an eight-point lead through three quarters, but Miami had its highest-scoring quarter of the Finals, putting up 36 during the final frame to even the series at one game apiece. The next two games in Miami weren’t particularly close.

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After coach Mike Malone called out Denver’s lack of effort in Game 2, the team responded with a 15-point road win and 30-point triple-doubles from both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Game 4 was a 13-point victory, but it wasn’t Jokic or Murray leading the charge. 

Instead, Aaron Gordon scored a playoff career-high 27 points in the Game 4 win, going 11-of-15 from the field and stroking three triples. Bruce Brown notched 21 off the bench while Denver cruised, despite a 15-point performance from Jamal Murray on 5-of-17 shooting.

Denver’s role players hadn’t done much through three games, and we’re still waiting for solid performances from Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. What’s scariest about Denver is the ability to win when Jokic and Murray are dominating or when role players finally step up. The team possesses so many weapons, and role players typically play best at home.

Jon Metler is counting on Denver's supporting cast to step up with his best bets for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

Speaking of role players, Miami received the most out of its complementary guys against the Boston Celtics, but that hasn’t been the case in the Finals. Jimmy Butler hasn’t erupted for a “Playoff Jimmy” game yet, and that looks to be the only way the Heat can steal a game on the road and extend the series. Bam Adebayo has played big in the paint, but Miami has been enduring a tough time scoring otherwise.

It’s been a great run for the Heat, but the overwhelming talent disparity between these two teams is showing, and Denver will close out comfortably at home Monday.

Heat vs. Nuggets best odds

DraftKings (+100)

Nuggets -10Nuggets -9.5Nuggets -9.5Nuggets -9.5Nuggets -9.5

The line for this one is set at -9 across most of our best live betting sites, but we can sell half a point at FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet for more profitable odds.

However, DraftKings offers the opportunity to sell a whole point and get Nuggets -10 for even money. That book therefore features the best value, especially considering Denver has notched an 11-plus-point win in all three of its NBA Finals victories in 2023.

Heat vs. Nuggets odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Heat vs. Nuggets odds analysis

The Nuggets opened as 8.5-point favorites at home, and that is where the line has settled as we get closer to tipoff. The Heat are 3-5 against the spread across their last eight games, while the Nuggets are 5-3 during that span.

The point total opened at a low of 207.5, but has since climbed up to 210 at our best sportsbooks. The total for Game 1 was 219, and the Under hit. The Game 2 total was 216, and the Over hit by three points. The totals for Games 3 and 4 were 213 and 211.5, respectively, and the Under hit both times.

Heat vs. Nuggets game info

  • Date: Monday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC
  • Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Heat-Nuggets pick made 6/11/2023 at 8 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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