Our Celtics vs. Heat NBA player props based on the best NBA odds from our best sports betting apps believe Boston big man Kristaps Porzingis will shine Thursday against Miami in a rematch of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals.
The Boston Celtics will be out for revenge Thursday against the Miami Heat in a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals - the first of two NBA games as part of TNT's doubleheader.
Both of these teams figure to be among the NBA Finals odds contenders when the postseason rolls around, as the Celtics lead the East at 34-10 and the Heat sit in sixth at 24-20. Boston is currently the title favorite, but Miami recently added Terry Rozier ahead of another potential postseason run.
The Heat lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in Rozier's debut on Wednesday. How will they respond against the league's best team?
To complement our NBA best bets and Kings vs. Warriors player props, here are our best Celtics-Heat NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Celtics vs. Heat NBA player props: Thursday
- Kristaps Porzingis Over 17.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kristaps Porzingis Over 15.5 points + Celtics ML (+105 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
- Bam Adebayo Under 4.5 assists (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
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Celtics vs. Heat props
Kristaps Porzingis Over 17.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
A significant reason why the 2023-24 Celtics team feels like more of a legitimate contender is because the club landed center Kristaps Porzingis during the offseason. Porzingis is averaging 19.5 points per game to go along with 6.8 rebounds and two assists per contest. He's cleared this points prop in 59% of his regular-season outings this year.
Now we're getting such a good number because Miami big man Bam Adebayo is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year odds contender. But Porzingis has cleared this mark in three of his last four matchups against the Heat, averaging 19 points per contest in those head-to-head meetings.
With a projection of 19 points once again, the Over on this line should be priced at -128 instead of the -105 bargain we are are getting at BetMGM. For comparison, Pinnacle, one of the sharper sportsbooks in the industry, has the same line listed at -123.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 15.5 points + Celtics ML (+105 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
If you don't want to count on Porzingis scoring 18-plus points, this same-game parlay at ESPN BET is a safer alternative. For what it's worth, it costs minus odds to bet on Porzingis to score 15-plus points in a Boston win at both FanDuel (-138) and DraftKings (-120).
Porzingis has scored 16-plus points in 22 of his 32 regular-season games with Boston this campaign, including 10 of his last 15 outings during a stretch when he's averaging 19.9 points per game. He's scored at least 16 points in each of his last four showdowns with the Heat.
Because these two Porzingis props are similar bets, we don't mind splitting up one unit between the two plays. Or you can just pick one. Both are valuable bets based on our projections for this game.
Bam Adebayo Under 4.5 assists (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Adebayo has been flashing his passing ability lately while clearing this line in three straight games. He's dished out at least six dimes in all three contests, recording a total of 19 assists over that span. That's why the Under is being offered at such a good deal.
The veteran is averaging 4.4 assists per game in 2023-24 and has only cleared this prop in 15 of his 34 games. We don't anticipate his kick-out passes leading to as many successful shots against Boston's defense.
With a projection below four assists, we like the Under at -130 or better. Fortunately, BetRivers is providing us with a -115 option when a shop like Pinnacle is charging as much as -145 for the same ticket.
Celtics-Heat NBA player props made Thursday at 10:45 a.m. ET.
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