Celtics vs. Bucks Odds, Picks, Predictions: Does Tatum’s Absence Tilt Heavyweight Battle to Milwaukee?

Without Jayson Tatum, the Boston Celtics are a sizable road underdog against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Read on for our Celtics vs. Bucks NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

Tuesday night in the NBA features a pair of Eastern Conference heavyweights as the first-place Celtics (41-16) travel to Milwaukee to battle the hard-charging Bucks (39-17). With Jayson Tatum expected to miss the game due to a non-COVID illness, can the Celtics keep things respectable on the road?

Here is our best Celtics vs. Bucks NBA pick (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Celtics vs. Bucks pick

Celtics +9.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though my gut tells me we get a shootout between the Eastern Conference’s top-two teams on Tuesday night, I’m not confident enough in the Over pick given Boston’s 8-18-1 road record on Overs this season, which ranks last in the NBA.

The absence of Tatum could also loom large in the team’s ability to operate offensively. But doesn’t it feel like this hefty point spread is dismissing the best team in the Eastern Conference a little too easily? The Celtics are 14-13 ATS in road games this season and have played without Tatum three times. Boston won two of the three Tatum-less affairs, falling by only three points in the lone loss.

Winners of 10 straight entering Tuesday, the Bucks also have an impressive home reputation, going 18-10 ATS at the Fiserv Forum this season. Still, the Celtics shouldn’t be underestimated with Milwaukee laying such an unusually large number. Boston has been an underdog only three times this season, with each occasion coming in a road environment. The Celtics have gone 2-1 outright and ATS in those contests, covering the spread by an average margin of 12 points. 

With two of the top-five teams in defensive efficiency in action, it’s hard to envision Tuesday night’s result reaching a double-digit victory for Milwaukee.

Celtics vs. Bucks best odds

BetMGM (-115)

While most of the sportsbooks list the Celtics at +9, BetMGM is the only location to offer Boston at +9.5. You’re paying a premium with odds at -115, but forcing Milwaukee to win this game by double-digits feels like a worthwhile opportunity to essentially buy half a point.

If you prefer maximizing the odds rather than taking advantage of the most attractive line, FanDuel is the best option for Celtics backers, offering the +9 line at -106 odds. That beats DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet, which feature standard -110 odds on Boston +9. At +8.5 or fewer, this recommendation reduces to three stars.

Celtics vs. Bucks odds

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Celtics vs. Bucks odds analysis

Milwaukee opened as an 8.5-point home favorite and has moved to -9 at the majority of sportsbooks. Given that healthy margin between two quality teams, 55% of wagers have been placed on Boston.

The total opened at 226.5 and has dipped to between 225 and 225.5 across our affiliated sportsbooks. The public has jumped on the opportunity to bet the points in conjunction with that line movement as 64% of wagers have gone Over the total.

Celtics vs. Bucks game info

• Date: Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023, 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Celtics-Bucks pick made 02/14/2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET.

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