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Bucks vs. Lakers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Title Contender Visits L.A.

Ahaan Rungta

Last Updated: February 9, 2023 3:39 PM EST • 3 min 7 sec read.

Giannis Antetokounmpo dribbles down the court and we offer up our top picks as the Bucks visit the Lakers.
Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles during the first quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers. Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images via AFP.

As the marquee matchup to cap a busy day in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks take their NBA Finals hopes to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. Here are our best Bucks vs. Lakers NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Bucks will list only Bobby Portis and Joe Ingles as out for Thursday's prime-time contest. That means all the stars will be suiting up and we look at Lebron, Giannis, and AD in our Bucks-Lakers player prop picks.

Editor's note: LeBron James was ruled out Thursday's game after publishing.

Meanwhile, the Lakers are on a two-game losing streak, and winning has not been their top headline over the last few days. However, after LeBron James broke the all-time NBA scoring record, the Lakers went out aggressively to the trade market to upgrade at the deadline.

They added D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt in a three-team trade involving Russell Westbrook but all three acquisitions are expected to make their team debut on Saturday at Golden State. Outside of that trio, Thomas Bryant and Patrick Beverley are also on their way out while LeBron is listed as questionable Thursday.

Here is our best Bucks vs. Lakers NBA pick (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

With the NBA Trade Deadline taking center stage on Thursday, follow along with our breakdown of the NBA Finals odds. We also look at Thursday's Bulls-Nets picks.

Bucks vs. Lakers pick

LeBron James first quarter Under 7.5 points (-129 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Lakers will obviously be shorthanded even if James plays, likely increasing the offensive volume of every Lakers player still on the roster. However, that effect is exaggerated with this line in the first quarter. In 25 games this season with Anthony Davis playing, James has stayed Under this line 20 times, averaging 6.5 points per 12 minutes in the first quarter in those contests. That means even if he fights his injury concerns and plays every single minute of the quarter, we expect him to go Under this line.

To add to the case, the Bucks are still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, particularly in terms of pressuring No. 1 offensive options. The absence of Bobby Portis’ energy in the paint has not had much of an effect on this recently; if anything, his designation is potentially good news for a Davis bounce-back game under the basket.

Here is how top scoring options have fared in the first quarter against the Bucks over their last three games:

  • Kawhi Leonard: six points in 12 minutes, Paul George: seven points in eight minutes
  • Jimmy Butler: 11 points in 10 minutes, Bam Adebayo: zero points in six minutes
  • Damian Lillard: two points in nine minutes, Anfernee Simons: five points in nine minutes

With the all-time scoring record out of the way for LeBron, expect him to be either passing or simply shut down in the first quarter on Thursday’s TNT late-night cap.

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Bucks vs. Lakers best odds

Caesars (-129)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 7.5 pointsN/AN/AUnder 7.5 pointsN/A
-130N/AN/A-129N/A

The first-quarter player prop market isn’t all that common, and we’re getting two similar options right now on DraftKings and Caesars, with the latter providing slightly better value.

With James’ 80% hit rate on the season, even factoring in the absences of Bryant and Westbrook, I would pay the juice on this prop up to -135 if the line reaches that mark. If the line moves down to 6.5, this becomes just a three-star play.

Bucks vs. Lakers odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Bucks vs. Lakers odds analysis

The Bucks are on an eight-game winning streak and now get two days to tip off a two-day, two-game road trip in Los Angeles. They sit as 8-point road favorites. They are 29-22-3 against the spread this season, the third-best cover rate in the NBA. However, they're just 5-6-1 ATS when they have the rest advantage like they do on Thursday.

The Lakers are 25-29-1 ATS this season and 5-7-1 when they have the rest disadvantage, but 8-6-0 ATS when they are underdogs at home.

The total for this game has stayed relatively stable at around 238.5 on most books, with the public slightly leaning toward the Under.

Bucks vs. Lakers game info

  • Date: Thursday, Feb. 9, 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Bucks-Lakers pick made 02/09/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Ahaan Rungta
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He's previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he's often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.