🏀 NBA Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Friday, May 15
Two Game 6 matchups are on deck for Friday's NBA playoff doubleheader. The Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs are one win away from a conference finals berth, while the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves are hoping to live to fight another day.
Given the stakes of this playoff action, I've targeted a trio of key contributors for my NBA player props today. Julius Randle, Ausar Thompson, and Donovan Mitchell all have a role in Friday's NBA picks and best bets.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: May 15
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle, F, Timberwolves | Under 20.5 points + assists (-118 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.85u |
| Ausar Thompson, F, Pistons | Over 6.5 rebounds (-120 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.83u |
| Donovan Mitchell, G, Cavaliers | Under 3.5 assists (-110 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 0.91u |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.59 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet today
Julius Randle Under 20.5 points + assists (-118) (vs.) Spurs
Timberwolves forward Julius Randle has struggled to find much offensive success against the Spurs' length. He's failed to clear this points + assists combo line in four straight games, averaging 13.3 points and 1.5 assists over that span.
As a result, the market has moved this combo line from 22.5 (where it was set earlier in the series) to 20.5. But there is room for a bigger drop, especially if the Spurs roll on Friday night. That's why some shops have set this total at 19.5 instead.
As long as this line is 20.5, I'll pounce on the Under.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 rebounds (-120) (at) Cavaliers
In a grinding series heading to a pivotal Game 6, I'm betting on the best athlete in the building. As legs wear down on both sides, Ausar Thompson's motor on the glass should become an even bigger weapon.
So far this postseason, Thompson has averaged 7.8 rebounds per game. The Detroit wing has collected at least seven boards in 10 of his 12 appearances.
Against Cleveland specifically, Thompson has cleared this line in all but one game while averaging 6.6 rebounds on 13 chances per contest. He had a series-best 19 chances last time out, supporting my theory that it's better to back him when everyone else is more tired.
The market has taken notice, pushing the over as high as -147 at DraftKings. I'll take advantage of the bargain at bet365.
Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 assists (-110) (vs.) Pistons
Cleveland guard Donovan Mitchell hasn't been much of a distributor in these playoffs, and the numbers make that clear. Across 12 postseason games, he's averaging just 2.9 assists and 7.5 potential dimes on 34.1 passes per game. Mitchell has finished with three or fewer assists nine times over that span.
In my opinion, the drop-off from his regular-season form shouldn't be surprising. Mitchell is locked in as the scorer, with James Harden handling the bulk of the playmaking duties. But the matchup doesn't help either. Detroit allowed the fewest assists in the league during the regular season and ranks second in that category through the playoffs.
BetMGM has the under 3.5 assists at -110, which is a much better number than most shops. To me, that's worth taking before tipoff.
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
The only way to get the target line for all three player props is by paying some juice at FanDuel for this parlay. Since I had to sacrifice some value on each prop, I wouldn't put too much on this +423 SGP for Friday's action.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- Julius Randle Under 20.5 points + assists (-128)
- Ausar Thompson Over 6.5 rebounds (-132)
- Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 assists (-132)
Best odds: +423 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.42u)
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 28.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40-50 | +5.22 units ✅ | 8.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 35-28 | +6.92 units ✅ | 11.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 5-21 | -0.7 units ❌ | -26.9% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
I've allocated three units between as many player props for Friday's doubleheader of Game 6s.
For all three plays, I'm leaning on recent trends for players who have been consistent (good and bad) from a prop perspective of late. As we get deeper into a series, markets become more efficient. Therefore, it can be more comfortable to attack an edge that's backed by plenty of data. So, that's why this card is sticking with some reliable angles on Friday.
Let's enjoy some high-stakes hoops.
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