76ers vs. Heat Game 1 NBA Picks: How Will Philly Respond Without Embiid?

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: May 2, 2022 7:48 AM EDT • 2 min 58 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 28: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers celebrates during second half of Game Six of the Eastern Conference First Round at Scotiabank Arena on April 28, 2022 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Cole Burston/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Cole Burston / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

After blowing past the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, can the Miami Heat stay hot against a 76ers team missing its All-Star center? Let's dive into the matchup with our 76ers-Heat picks.

Miami cruised to a five-game series win over Atlanta in the first round while holding Trae Young in check, and suffering only a single-point loss. Meanwhile, Philadelphia took a commanding 3-0 series lead over Toronto before giving up back-to-back games and blowing out the Raptors during Game 6. Unfortunately, the good news ends there for the Sixers.

Joel Embiid fractured his right orbital bone late in Game 6 and has already been ruled out for Games 1 and 2 against Miami. His absence is significant on both ends of the court for Philly, and Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, and James Harden will need to step up. Second-year center Paul Reed will likely shoulder the frontcourt load.

The Heat come into this one banged up, too. Miami lost Kyle Lowry for Games 4 and 5 of its previous series due to a hamstring injury, and Jimmy Butler sat out Game 5 with a knee issue. Lowry is out for Game 1 now, and Butler is questionable. Tyler Herro and P.J. Tucker are also questionable, but they're expected to play.

Here are my 76ers-Heat picks and predictions for Monday’s NBA matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on 1-to-5-star scale).

76ers vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, May 2, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

76ers vs. Heat Odds Analysis

The early lines opened at Heat -4, but the shift was quick after Embiid’s absence was confirmed. Without the NBA scoring champ and MVP candidate available, 71% of the tickets and 67% of the money are on Miami to cover. Winning or even covering will be tough for Philadelphia without its big man.

The Over/Under opened at 209, with just a one-point shift since. Bettors are more uncertain here, as 56% of the tickets and 66% of the cash are on the Over. The Heat and 76ers were lower-scoring teams during the regular season, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs. The Over will nearly always get a lot of action when the total is 210.

76ers vs. Heat Picks

Heat -7.5 (-110) ????Over 208 (-110) ?????Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 points (+162) ?????

76ers vs. Heat Predictions

Heat -7.5 (-110)

The Heat and Sixers split their regular-season series 2-2. Interestingly, one of the Heat's wins came when Butler was out, and one of the Sixer's victories occurred when Embiid was sitting.

Philly went 42-45-1 overall on the season and 10-6-0 as an away underdog. Miami was a bit better overall at 49-37-1 in 2021-22 and 19-20-0 as the home favorite. The Heat went 3-2 against the spread in the first round, and the Sixers went 4-2.

Encouragingly for Philadelphia, the Sixers went 7-7 ATS in 14 games without Embiid in 2021-22, with four of those contests coming at home and one against Miami. Philadelphia is more than capable of making this a competitive game, but Miami played too well in the first round to pick the Sixers. Take the Sixers to stay hot while both winning and covering.

C heck out our top-rated sportsbooks her

Over 208 (-110)

These teams combined for two Overs and nine Unders during the first round. That should easily lead us to an Under bet, right? Not exactly.

Miami went 48-38-1 on the season, and 19-19-1 as the home favorite. Meanwhile, Philly went 41-45-2 in 2021-22, and 4-12-0 as the away underdog.

With Embiid out, the Sixers will run their offense through Maxey and Harden, which should result in a faster pace. And Miami will score more without needing to deal with Embiid anchoring Philly's defense.

Hammer the Over with a point total this low.

Maxey Over 24.5 points (+162)

Maxey averaged 16 points per game during the season when Embiid was in the lineup, but his scoring jumped way up to 23.7 points whenever Embiid was sidelined. The guard will need to be just slightly above average in Game 1 to cash this prop.

He scored 25-plus points in 13 of his 75 regular-season contests, good for just under a 20% success rate. Maxey hit that point threshold in two of his four regular-season matchups against Miami, and he did it twice more during the first round against Atlanta.

His standard Over/Under is 21.5 at -110 odds, but we’re taking the next step with a plus-money play.

Where to Bet on 76ers-Heat Picks

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76ers-Heat picks made 5/2/2022 at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Zachary Hanshew

Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.