Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction: WNBA Picks for Sunday, Oct. 4
My Aces vs. Valkyries prediction is counting on a strong performance from Las Vegas in Game 1. Tipoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on Sunday at Chase Center in San Francisco on NBC.
The Aces are short favorites on Sunday, leading the latest WNBA championship odds. With their rest advantage in Game 1, they need to set the tone.
🏀 Aces vs. Valkyries prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Aces -1.5 (-104 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.96u | Since 2024, the Aces are 19-11 ATS when they have the rest advantage. |
| Aces Over 81.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) | 1u → 0.95u | Dating back to last postseason, Las Vegas has scored at least 82 points in all but one playoff game. |
| Jackie Young Over 18.5 points (-128 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.78u | Jackie Young averaged 23.7 points per game in three head-to-head meetings with the Valkyries this year. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.69 units
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🏆 Who will win Aces vs. Valkyries?
I'm projecting a six-point win for the Aces in Game 1 of their semifinal matchup against the Valkyries. Having won three of the last four titles, Las Vegas knows how to navigate a playoff series. This is a situation where it's critical for the Aces to steal home-court advantage and set the tone as the defending champions.
Score prediction: Aces 85, Valkyries 79
💰 Aces vs. Valkyries prediction & best bet
Aces -1.5 (-104)
The Aces begin as short favorites in a tough environment, but I'm willing to lay the points with an experienced squad. Las Vegas finished up its series win on Thursday, whereas Golden State needed a late comeback in Friday's Game 3 following an overtime loss in Game 2.
As a result, the Aces have the rest advantage ahead of a pivotal Game 1. Since 2024, the Aces are 19-11 against the spread when they have the rest advantage.
In addition, Las Vegas understands how important Game 1 is. Since 2022, the Aces have won Game 1 in nine of their 11 postseason series victories.
🔥 Best Aces vs. Valkyries player prop bet
Jackie Young Over 18.5 points (-128)
With the Valkyries likely to send double teams at A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas guard Jackie Young could play a crucial role in this series.
Young was asked to shoulder more of an offensive burden against Golden State in the regular season. In three head-to-head meetings, Young averaged 23.7 points per game and scored at least 21 in every matchup.
The Valkyries struggled to slow down Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale in Round 1, as she set a playoff record for most points scored in a game. Young doesn't have to do that, but she's capable of delivering some big offensive performances.
This line is as high as 19.5 in the market, so give me the value at FanDuel.
🚀 Aces vs. Valkyries same-game parlay
I've built an extremely correlated parlay for Game 1 on Sunday. I believe the Aces will win the opener, taking advantage of the Valkyries' tired legs in what could be a strong offensive performance. With the Valkyries focused on slowing down Wilson, Young has a chance to have a huge role in helping the Aces set the tone.
💵 Aces vs. Valkyries SGP picks
- Aces -1.5 (-105)
- Jackie Young Over 19.5 points (-110)
- Aces Over 81.5 points (-115)
Best odds: +280 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.28u)
📊 Live Aces vs. Valkyries odds
📺 How to watch Aces vs. Valkyries
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
- Tipoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Chase Center (San Francisco)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
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