ATP and WTA US Open 2021 Day 11 Top Tennis Picks and Predictions

It’s been a solid tournament so far for my tennis picks with another winner last out as Leylah Annie Fernandez defeated fifth seed Elina Svitolina in a dramatic third set tiebreak to land a +216 winner. The second bet – the overs in Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime – was void as the Spaniard retired.

As we turn to the quarter-finals we have some excellent matches to look forward to and as is often the case I think the value lies in a side market. For tonight, we'll only focus on WTA odds despite going over the Berrettini-Djokovic matchup.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Novak Djokovic

Wednesday, September 08, 2021 - 08:15 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium

A rematch of the Wimbledon finals sees world number one Novak Djokovic take on Matteo Berrettini and it’s hard to see the Italian winning this one, but the odds look about right for me all around and it’s a no bet match as far as I’m concerned.

Berrettini was lucky to win the opening set against Novak at Wimbledon and looked out of his depth for the rest of that match, and I’m surprised that we can get the same odds away from grass, which is Matteo’s best surface.

https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1435066656309465090

Djokovic has more of an edge on hard courts to my mind and while he has looked shaky at points this week, dropping a set in 3 of his 4 matches, he has never looked seriously under threat.

If we discount his default against Carreno-Busta the Serb has now won 39 of his last 40 matches as the favourite in slams and if we also discount retirements he has won 68 of his last 70 going all the way back to the French Open in 2018.

https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1435056569268334595?s=20

Berrettini has a big serve and a lot of natural power, but he’s a limited player with obvious weaknesses that Djokovic will exploit, as he has in all of their previous matches. The only concern for Djokovic is fitness but he has seemed fine so far in this event.

While my instinct points to Djokovic winning comfortably, history suggests that 3-1 is very possible too with Djokovic winning both of their slam matches by this scoreline in 2021 as well as three of his four matches this week, as mentioned.

It’s tricky for me to get much of a clear read other than feeling that Matteo is out of his depth. Besides putting Novak in an accumulator it’s a pass for me.

ATP Pick: No Bet

Czech Republic's Karolina Pliskova hits a return to Russia's Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova during their 2021 US Open Tennis tournament women's singles fourth round match. Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP

Maria Sakkari vs. Karolina Pliskova

Wednesday, September 08, 2021 - 07:00 PM EDT at Arthur Ashe Stadium

We haven’t had much luck with the over in our bets so far this week but I’m going back to the well in a match that seems destined to go long. Both players look in strong form and given the quick

courts and service-dominant style of Pliskova, the slight favourite, I like the look of over 22 games at -103 over at (visit our Sportsbook Review).

Pliskova is the very slight favourite for this match and at 6’ 1” it’s understandable that she would rely on her serve to eke out tight matches when up against elite-level opposition.

https://twitter.com/WTA/status/1435133229149954050?s=20

Priced up in these tight matches between odds of -200 and +100 against the top 20 she has only finished under the total line in 19 of her last 50 matches including just two of 13 overs the last two years.

Sakkari is less serve reliant but still power orientated and with a strong serve. She is not an elite level counter puncher and so is not likely to negate Pliskova’s serve but instead, she will look to play first-strike tennis, matching Pliskova at her own game and thus (hopefully) resulting in a tight, serve orientated affair.

https://twitter.com/WTA/status/1435031847197683712?s=20

She is not quite as prolific for the over bet but has still when priced between odds of -200 and +100 against the Top 20 she has only finished under the total line in 14 of 35 matches.

Only one of the two head-to-head matches saw the over land but both were on clay and neither has come since the covid break, so it’s hard to glean much information.

The Pick

They have both looked in excellent form so far this week and so long as both continue to bring their A-game I can’t see anything other than a tight match, probably with a tiebreak mixed in and/or a deciding set. Let's roll with the over for the WTA pick in this match.

WTA Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.