Masters Expert Picks, PGA Tour Bet Slips, and Cheat Sheet: Best Value Bets for Augusta National

The 2022 Masters tees off on Thursday morning with all of the world’s top golfers chasing the year’s first major. Our PGA Tour experts offer up their best bets for the winner, matchups, and props at the Masters.

The 86th edition of the Masters Tournament takes place this week at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA. While the futures odds have been available since the conclusion of the 2021 tournament, our PGA Tour experts are here to help those getting to the party late with their picks and best bets on the remaining value.

Not that the tournament’s ever in need of extra publicity, but Tiger Woods furthered excitement for this year’s event on Tuesday when saying he expects to start Thursday’s first round. His tee time is set for 10:34 a.m. ET.

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Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their picks and best bets for the 2022 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Picks made by Esten McLaren, Jon Metler, Neil Parker, and Jordan Anderson.

2022 Masters Odds

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Masters Cheat Sheet

Masters Expert Picks

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SEE ALSO: 2022 Masters Picks

Masters Picks to Win

Collin Morikawa (+2200 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

No course and tournament can buck the numbers and expectations with such ease as Augusta National and the Masters. However, the value on Collin Morikawa to win his third major this week at the age of 25 is far too great to ignore, especially at the gaudy price offered by FanDuel.

Morikawa enters this week third in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Yet, he’s a consensus ninth by the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks to win major No. 3. That value on its own is enough to back the multi-time major winner who has proven he can fend off the rest of the world’s best.

Morikawa made the cut in each of his first two appearances in the Masters with a top finish of T-18 last year. While he hasn’t been in his usually sharp form thus far in 2022, four of his previous five world-wide wins came after finishing no better than T-20 in his previous event. - McLaren

Jon Rahm (+1300 via FanDuel)

Jon Rahm isn't receiving the support that one would expect him to receive leading up to the Masters, and this can largely be attributed to his lack of a victory in 2022 and short prices. Rahm represents just 3.0% of the tickets and 3.1% of the handle at BetMGM. There are eight other golfers with a higher ticket percentage than Rahm. 

In light of the odds Rahm had at the time, I would not have picked him for the Masters a month ago. This does not mean that I did not believe he could win. He was simply trading at a very short price of +700 and there was no value in that price point. 

To be successful at the Masters, one of the most important indicators is strokes gained: off-the-tee. Rahm led the field with an average score of 1.71 SG: off-the-tee at Augusta National in 2021. In addition to his performance off-the-tee at the Masters, he has been ranked No. 1 on the PGA Tour in SG: off-the-tee for the entire 2021-22 season.

Rahm is currently available for +1300 via FanDuel, making him my top pick to win the Masters. My reasoning for this pick is based on the movement in his odds. I cannot endorse the +900 posted by DraftKings, but I will back him at +1300. Initial impressions may indicate that there is not much difference, but in the long run, the four-dollar difference is significant. - Metler

Brooks Koepka (+2000 via Caesars Sportsbook)

After missing the cut at the 2021 Masters, Brooks Koepka finished second, fourth, and sixth at the following three major championships. His T-3 finish at the WM Phoenix Open impressed in February, and the four-time major winner's strong showing at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play two weeks ago is further encouragement. 

Remember, Koepka is working his way back from multiple injuries that impacted his consistency for the better part of the past two seasons. He has also topped out with a tie for second place in the 2019 Masters. This is a fair number and checks out at a 4.8 probability percentage for a fifth major championship and first at the Masters. - Parker

Justin Thomas (+1300 via FanDuel)

Justin Thomas comes to Augusta looking to avenge his T-21 finish from 2021. 

While a T-21 would be an excellent result for most players, Thomas looked like he was cruising to his first Masters victory until a rain delay derailed those plans – promptly recording an eight on return to play, plummeting him down the leaderboard. 

Thomas is in fantastic form, with six top-10 finishes in his last nine starts. In his previous four events alone, he has gained 34.4 strokes from tee to green – first in the field. 

Par 4 scoring will be vital this week as the par 5s at Augusta National are very reachable in two, and it’s Thomas who leads the tour in strokes gained on par 4s at plus-33.2 over his last 24 rounds. 

If we throw out last year’s results due to weather, Thomas has improved his finishing position every year at Augusta National. Experience is key here, and not only does he have it, but he will also have veteran caddie Jim “Bones” Mackay on his bag, an invaluable resource.

Thomas is trending in the right direction, and the stars are aligning just right for him to capture his first green jacket. - Anderson

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Masters Longshot Picks

Sungjae Im (+7500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sungjae Im opened at +6000 to win the Masters last April after missing the cut in 2021. He’s still offered as low as +5000 to win this week, making this number at DraftKings an outlier that bettors need to target.

Im tied for second at the 2020 Masters before last year’s missed cut. He claimed his second PGA Tour win in the fall and has two top-10 finishes through nine events this year. He’s gaining strokes on the field in all key areas and has been much improved with the putter that helped cause him to miss the weekend a year ago.

The 26th-ranked golfer in the OWGR is being overlooked by the odds. - McLaren

Cameron Young (+14000 via FanDuel)

In this column, I was hoping to give a different longshot pick than the one I provided in another Masters article here at SBR, but I just really like Cameron Young too much to pick someone else. The combination of what he has accomplished this season, his distance off the tee, and his price of +14000 is too compelling to ignore.

There is one statistic that consistently plays at Augusta National, and that is driving distance. You will not find anyone with a price point higher than +10000, who drives the ball better than Young. On the PGA Tour, he is currently ranked second with an average driving distance of 319.6 yards.

I am not the only one who is backing Young this week. At BetMGM, he commands a 0.9% share of tickets, which is not a high number, but he is right behind other players who have much shorter odds, such as Bryson DeChambeau. FanDuel offers the longest price on Young of +14000. At Caesars Sportsbook, Young is trading as low as +10000. - Metler

Tyrrell Hatton (+6000 via PointsBet)

Longshots rarely win at the Masters, and Tyrrell Hatton’s number has dropped considerably over the past two months leading into the event. Still, this is a great value for the well-rounded Englishman. Hatton has also made eight straight world-wide cuts with four top-10 finishes and six top 20s.

Additionally, Hatton ranks second in 3-putt avoidance and seventh in SG: total on the PGA Tour this season, so there’s some legitimacy to his recent surge. So, while last year’s tie for 18th was his best finish at Augusta National, Hatton does have five top-10 major championship finishes. - Parker

Max Homa (+10000 via PointsBet)

The winner of the 2021 Genesis Invitational comes to Augusta in tremendous form, rattling off four-straight top-20 finishes in strokeplay events. 

Homa missed the cut in each of his first two appearances at the Masters, but that’s not unusual. Experience is paramount here, so he should be more comfortable this time around. 

His putter is problematic, which may be an issue on these fast and undulated greens, but he gained 7.9 and 8.7 total strokes on the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, respectively, so even a mediocre performance with the flat stick will allow him to succeed here. 

The three-time PGA Tour winner has positive win equity, proving that he can overcome a tough field at last year’s edition of The Genesis. Homa is certainly worth a flier at these odds. - Anderson

Masters Top Matchup Picks

Corey Conners (+100) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (via BetMGM)

Corey Conners has played a busier schedule than most top golfers play at the start of the year. Ranked 32nd in the OWGR, he has played nine events already in 2022, with a top finish of third at the WGC-Match Play. He has made four straight cuts with no result worse than his T-35 last week.

Louis Oosthuizen’s at the other end of the spectrum with just five events played. He hasn’t missed a cut, but he has just one finish inside the top 30. His performance in the final three majors of 2021 was nearly the stuff of legend (second at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, and third at The Open), but it’s now highly relevant that he was a lackluster T-26 at the 2021 Masters.

Conners finished T-10 or better in each of the last two runnings of the Masters. Given his extended warmup period this year, take him as the even-money underdog in this tournament head-to-head. - McLaren

Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Brooks Koepka (via DraftKings)

At BetMGM, Brooks Koepka is the second biggest liability behind Tiger Woods in terms of winning the Masters outright. At 11.0%, Koepka has the highest handle percentage, and he is second by ticket percentage at 5.4%. It' Due to his past performance in major championships that Koepka is taking so much action.

For the sportsbooks to avoid liability on Koepka, they had to pair him up against an elite golfer in his matchup. This player is Viktor Hovland, and statistically, this matchup is not even close to being competitive. On the season, Hovland has averaged 1.98 SG: total per round, while Koepka has averaged only 0.55 SG: total. Essentially, this means that upon completion of four rounds, Hovland should be close to six strokes better than Koepka.

It is only for liability reasons that Koepka is paired against Hovland in the matchups. Therefore, I must support Hovland on the basis of his statistics. Hovland is being offered a very generous price of -110, where he has a significant statistical edge. The odds are a market, not a prediction. This matchup and line are all about countering Koepka's liability. - Metler

Jordan Spieth (+112) vs. Viktor Hovland (via FanDuel)

Having a plus-money option to back Jordan Spieth at Augusta National is worth a closer look. He’s been next to automatic in the event and played 20 of his 32 rounds under par while also never missing the weekend. Of course, he also won in 2015 and added four more top-five finishes.

Turning to Hovland, there just isn’t the same level of experience, and the Norwegian’s game around the green has been a huge weakness. Even with likely positive regression ahead for his near-PGA Tour worst SG: around-the-green rank, this golf course demands precision with all 14 clubs. - Parker

Matt Fitzpatrick (-110) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (via DraftKings)

Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut in six of his seven trips to Augusta, with a T-7 in 2016 as his best finish.

After years of success in Europe, he’s looking for that flagship victory to solidify his presence on Tour in the U.S. 

Fitzpatrick has already put together quite a year, with four top-10 finishes, and he leads the Tour in SG: total this season. 

Hatton finished T-18 here last season, his best finish in the Masters. He has been playing well globally and recently tied for second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

He’s undoubtedly an exceptional talent, but his volatile personality is problematic for me at a high-pressure event like this. Majors, and the Masters specifically, are pressure-packed events, and one lousy shot may send the Englishman over the edge. 

Fitzpatrick has been trending exceptionally well, and I’ll gladly back him over Hatton. - Anderson

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Masters Top Prop Picks

Top Debutant: Sam Burns (+350 via BetMGM)

Few props for the Masters feel as safe as this one, let alone as profitable.

Sam Burns is making his Masters debut this week but while ranked 11th in the world and with three PGA Tour victories to his name. While all of his closest competition in this 20-man pool has at least one notable win from around the world, none of them have been on the same tear of success as Burns.

The 3.5-1 return on this bet is extremely generous. Each of the five golfers ahead of Burns in SG: total per round this season rank inside the top seven of the OWGR and are inside the top eight by the odds to win this week. Burns isn’t your average first-timer. - McLaren

To make the cut parlay: Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, and Viktor Hovland (+200 via DraftKings)

If Woods announces that he will play in the Masters, there will be plenty of action in the betting markets on him. Woods winning the Masters is not very realistic, however, making the cut is.

The players involved in this prop, aside from Woods, are not likely to miss the cut. That includes Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, and Hovland. Hovland is currently ranked fourth in the world, and two of these players have extensive course histories at Augusta National.

In this prop, I see the opportunity for someone looking to bet on Woods to make the cut to use Spieth, McIlroy, and Hovland to create enhanced odds. If this parlay is available at +200, why would you back Woods at +108? In essence, you are betting on the same result, but you gain 92 cents in value.

If you are considering betting on Woods to make the cut at Augusta National, I would recommend playing this prop for the higher price of +200, rather than betting on Woods individually at +108. - Metler

First-round leader: Xander Schauffele (+3100 via FanDuel)

This recommendation is all about the number and course fit. Xander Schauffele has shot 70 or better in seven of his last 11 rounds at Augusta National with a low round of 65 on his resume. He also fired an opening-round 67 in 2020, so there’s potential.  

It has also been a strong scoring season for Schauffele, despite having just a single top-10 finish through eight events in 2022. He ranks 29th in scoring average and is tied for 12th in birdie or better percentage among his PGA Tour peers. Most importantly, though, the +3100 odds have long legs – even if his last Tour victory was over three years ago. - Parker

Top Great Britain/Ireland Player: Shane Lowry (+650 via DraftKings)

I’m very high on Shane Lowry this week. 

The former Open Championship winner is in tremendous form, with three-straight top-15 finishes on the PGA Tour before the WGC-Match Play. He also played well overseas to start the calendar year and finished second at the always challenging Honda Classic. 

Augusta National should play longer this year due to renovations which shouldn’t affect Lowry, who ranks in the top-100 on tour in driving distance and has been tremendous in gaining strokes tee-to-green this season. 

An unusual weather circumstance derailed his path to victory on the 18th tee at the Honda Classic, and he mentioned that he had his sights set on Augusta to avenge those circumstances. Trending in the right direction and extra motivated, I like Lowry in this prop market and as an outright, as well. - Anderson

Picks to Fade

Dustin Johnson

Dustin Johnson opened around +1200 to win the 2022 Masters last April. His odds have risen slightly with others around him having frequented the winner’s circle over the past year. Johnson’s still ranked eighth in the world, but he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the 2020 Masters. While he finished fourth in the WGC-Match Play, that was his top finish of the year to date.

When he won the 2020 Masters, Johnson had finished no worse than T-6 in each of his previous six events. He’s becoming a popular name this week, but he's nowhere near that same form. - McLaren

Sam Burns (+210 to miss the cut via DraftKings)

Burns won his last tournament at the Valspar Championship, but let's not forget that he missed three straight cuts before the Florida swing. Burns has lost strokes off-the-tee three times in his last five tournaments.

It is imperative to have experience at Augusta National in order to be successful, and this is Burns' first appearance at the Masters. Given Burns' inexperience and sometimes shaky driving, I predict that he will miss the cut this week. The highest price can be found at DraftKings, where he is +210. At FanDuel, he is offered for 10 cents less at +200. - Metler

Scottie Scheffler

The momentum has been building for Scottie Scheffler since first playing full time on the PGA Tour three years ago, but maintaining his current surge has to be impossible, right?

Scheffler has won three of his past five starts, and the victories all came at big-time events with strong fields. Sounds like the current form you’re looking for heading into a major championship, but there’s not a lot of value left in Scheffler’s odds.

Additionally, even with two solid showings at the Masters in two starts (T-19 and T-18), Scheffler has only broken 70 once.  In an event where experience and course knowledge are so critical, it’s tough to back him at such a short number, even if you think he can improbably win for the fourth time in six events and in back-to-back starts. - Parker

Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama hadn’t played in nearly a month prior to last week's Valero Texas Open where he missed the cut. While I’m sure prospectively looking ahead to this event and defending his title was on his mind, his injury risk is too much for me.

I instead will monitor his play and physical status as the tournament begins for an in-game wager if he shows signs of health. - Anderson

More Masters Picks

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