Liberty vs. Aces Prediction: Game 3 Expert Picks & WNBA Playoffs Odds
The New York Liberty boast a 2-0 series lead over the Las Vegas Aces in the WNBA semifinals ahead of Friday's Game 3, which tips off from Michelob ULTRA Arena at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
- The Aces are favored by 2.5 points to beat the Liberty across our best sportsbooks
- New York won the first two games of this series by a combined 14 points
- We're expecting a bounce-back effort from Las Vegas and star A'ja Wilson
Here is a look at our Liberty vs. Aces prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Friday's Game 3:
Aces vs. Liberty expert picks: Game 3
WNBA picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Aces -2.5 (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- A'ja Wilson Over 23.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 assists (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Aces vs. Liberty prediction: Game 3
Aces -2.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
We backed the Liberty in each of the first two games of this series, and they turned in a pair of victories to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.
A loss on Friday would spell the end of the Aces' season after winning back-to-back titles. No team has ever come back from a 0-2 series hole in a best-of-five series, and no defending champion has ever been in this spot.
That's why I'm backing Las Vegas in its first elimination game in three years.
Las Vegas to bounce back in Game 3
The Aces played a much more aggressive brand of basketball in Game 2. They finished with 29 rebounds and 23 assists, both topping their effort in Game 1, and forced the Liberty into 20 missed 3-point attempts.
They also enjoyed a 24-point effort from A'ja Wilson on 61.1% shooting - her best offensive game of the postseason - but couldn't limit New York's efficiency inside in a roaring environment at Barclays Center.
That should be easier to do at home, where the Aces have won six straight games and both playoff games in the first round.
In a true do-or-die spot in Game 3, I'm expecting Las Vegas to carry that momentum from the end of Game 2 and keep its season alive for at least one night longer - until the Liberty presumably end it in Game 4 or 5.
With the Aces dealing as short as -3, I like this spread of -2.5 at bet365 with market-best odds of -110 on the home favorites.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Aces vs. Liberty player props: Game 3
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A'ja Wilson Over 23.5 points (-120) ⭐⭐⭐
Remember when Wilson used to catch prop totals nearing 30 points during the regular season? Those numbers have since plummeted in the postseason.
It's dipped a little too far, in my view, given that Wilson cleared this total in two of her four playoff starts so far after her most efficient showing yet in this postseason.
It's exhausting work defending Wilson in the paint for 40 minutes, and in a must-win spot for Las Vegas, I'd expect the three-time MVP to shoulder a heavy load from the opening tip to the final horn.
Wilson has cleared this total twice in four games against New York. If she does it again, a $10 bet at DraftKings would return $8.33 in profit.
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 assists (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We bet on Gray to finish with at least five assists in Game 2, and she rewarded us with seven dimes in another strong showing for the Point Gawd.
It seems our best sports betting apps are still slow to adjust on this total for Gray, who has now finished with at least six assists in three of four playoff games and seven of her last 11 games overall.
The math is clearly in our favor at these +105 odds, which carry a 48.78% implied probability and would turn a $10 bet into a $10.50 profit.
Best odds: +105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 48.78%
Aces vs. Liberty Game 3 odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aces | -3 (-105) | -3 (-110) | -2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Liberty | +3 (-115) | +3 (-110) | +2.5 (-105) | +2.5 (-105) | +2.5 (-110) |
Aces vs. Liberty Game 3 info
- When: Friday, Oct. 4
- Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Paradise, Nev.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Favorite: Aces -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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