WTA Finals: Anett Kontaveit vs. Maria Sakkari Betting Picks

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 16, 2021 4:50 AM EST • 2 min 45 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Maria Sakkari of Greece celebrates the victory against Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus during the third round robin match at the 2021 Akron WTA Finals Guadalajara, Masters WTA tennis tournament on November 15, 2021 in Guadalajara, Mexico - Photo Rob Prange / Spain DPPI / DPPI (Photo by ROB PRANGE / Spain DPPI / DPPI via AFP)

Kontaveit has looked unstoppable lately, but can Sakkari overcome the favorite to reach her maiden final at the end-of-year championships?

We’ve done well so far during this event, with another couple of winners on the moneyline and Over bets when Swiatek defeated Badosa 7-5 6-4 on Monday. That’s five wins out of six bets so far.

Predictably, Kontaveit was a little flat in her final round-robin match against Garbine Muguruza. She had already made the semis, so it made sense to save herself for this match. I expect a strong performance from the in-form player now, but let's side with Sakkari given her record in big matches and the prices offered.

Sakkari owns the head-to-head advantage 6-5, including 4-4 on indoor and outdoor hard courts and 2-2 in 2021. It’s been an unusual set of matches between the two, with 10 of the 11 ending in straight sets. The underdog has also won during five of the 11 occasions, with Kontaveit taking three and Sakkari winning two.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s WTA Finals matchup between Anett Kontaveit and Maria Sakkari (pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Anett Kontaveit vs. Maria Sakkari Match Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, November 16 at 8:30 p.m. ETTV: Tennis ChannelLocation: Guadalajara, Mexico

Anett Kontaveit vs. Maria Sakkari Odds Analysis

The market opened with Sakkari around +125, but she's since drifted to +162, which is mostly why I think she's the best bet.

The top player often gets backed into a poor price, offering an opportunity to take them based on value. As Dan Weston has highlighted previously, the sweet spot in terms of historical return on investment (ROI) comes after a small to medium-sized drift, like the one today.

Anett Kontaveit vs. Maria Sakkari Betting Picks

Sakkari (+162 via SBK) ?Set 1: Over 10.5 Games (+275 via DraftKings) ?

Anett Kontaveit vs. Maria Sakkari Picks

Sakkari (+162)

I’m expecting a high-quality match, with both players looking very focused this week. I expect Kontaveit to win most of the time, but the opening line of +125 for Sakkari was about right, with the Greek a perennial overperformer during big matches.

There's little to say against Kontaveit beyond the obvious question: Can she keep it up? I imagine she can for this event at least, but it wouldn't be surprising if the 25-year-old becomes tight under pressure in one of her most significant career matches. Kontaveit has been priced as the favorite against Sakkari four other times, but she won only two of those matches.

More importantly, Sakkari is a big-match player, with a 19-19 record and a 46 percent ROI against the top 10, including going 9-5 with a 57 percent return in 2021. She's also 9-1 with a 109 percent ROI when priced between +100 to +200 against the top 10 on indoor and outdoor hard courts. Those are incredible numbers that show she really rises to the occasion against the elite.

Set 1: Over 10.5 Games (+275)

Guadalajara is at 1,500 meters of altitude, which really makes the balls fly through the air. That changes the dynamic significantly, and the match can go one of two ways.

If a player can’t get the ball under control, that can lead to a very one-sided match. However, if both players control the ball, those with an aggressive, first-strike style of tennis benefit due to the extra bit of speed on serves and groundstrokes.

We’ve seen both happen this week, with a couple of 6-0 sets mixed in with very tight, serve-orientated sets, and the latter is likely coming in this clash. The two players are accustomed to the conditions now, and both are very strong with their serve while relying on a power-orientated approach, so the altitude suits their game.

Kontaveit has held serve 93 percent of the time this week and 80 percent over the last three months, so the concern for this bet is Sakkari. However, she’s been excellent during long sets this week while defeating Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 6-7 6-3 and losing to Paula Badosa 7-6 6-4 the match before.

The one previous head-to-head matchup at an altitude between Kontaveit and Sakkari came in Gstaad, which has a similar 1,000 meters of elevation. The first set finished at 7-5 that day.