Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Predictions 2026: Expert Picks for July 4

One of the great American spectacles takes center stage again on Saturday, July 4 with the 2026 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest beginning at 11 a.m. ET with the women's competition and 12:30 p.m. ET for the men's contest (ABC/ESPN).

Joey Chestnut is the overwhelming favorite by the hot dog eating contest odds across the top prediction market apps to win his record-setting 18th Mustard Belt, while Miki Sudo is the front-runner for the women. Will either competitive eater make history this weekend at Coney Island in New York?

Below, I break down all of the latest odds with my hot dog eating contest predictions and expert picks for both competitions.

🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds: Who will win men's contest?

The men's side has been dominated by Chestnut since his first victory in 2007, as he's only lost once in that stretch - falling to Matt Stonie in 2015 - while close friend Patrick Bertoletti took the crown in 2024 when Chestnut was barred from competition.

Chestnut came back with a vengeance last year, finishing with 70.5 hot dogs on a day when the entire field fell short of expectation under the beating New York sun. He was initially expected to top that number on Saturday, but the market has been fading the heavy favorite relative to his 2025 total as this year's contest nears.

Who will win the men's hot dog eating contest?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

If Chestnut is healthy and the dogs are cooked right, he's a virtual lock to win this competition. He hasn't lost outright since 2015, and the market has him priced at a 94% likelihood to win this competition for the 18th time in the last 20 years.

The more interesting race is for second place: Bertoletti, who won this contest downing 58 hot dogs and buns in 2024, leads the "winner without Joey Chestnut" market with a 65% chance to be the top competitor outside of Chestnut. That's three times higher than the next-best option, James Webb, with veterans Geoffrey Esper and Nick Wehry hovering around 10% ahead of Saturday's contest.

How many hot dogs will Joey Chestnut eat?

After Chestnut finished with "only" 70.5 hot dogs last year, the market is bearish on his chances of clearing that total this year with his Over/Under sitting at 69.5 HDB (hot dogs and buns) ahead of Saturday's contest. That would still be his second-highest total since 2021, as he finished with 63 HDB in 2022 and 62 HBD in 2023.

You can buy shares in Chestnut clearing 70 HDB at 47 cents, which would return a 53-cent profit if he clears that mark. Conversely, you can fade him at that mark for 54 cents or even chase a better profit on him falling below 65 HDB, as he's done twice in recent years, for a roughly 3-to-1 profit on your trade.

🌭 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds: Who will win women's contest?

For as dominant as Chestnut has been on the men's side, Sudo has been equally unbeatable on the women's side - she's won every contest she competed in since her first victory in 2014, excluding the 2021 contest which she missed because of pregnancy.

Who will win the women's hot dog eating contest?

Sudo has won 11 straight contests in which she's competed, and she's just two years removed from setting the record with 51 HDB in 2024. That's why she's priced at a 92% probability to claim her fifth straight belt, well ahead of 2021 winner Michelle Lesco and long-shot competitor Domenica Dee.

Much like on the men's side, the race heats up when eliminating the favorite. Lesco features a 63% chance of being the winner without Sudo, nearly doubling the chances of Dee, while no other competitor features better than a 1% chance entering Saturday.

How many hot dogs will Miki Sudo eat?

Sudo underwhelmed last year with just 33 HDB, well short of her record total of 51 in 2024. The market is forecasting roughly 37 HDB this year - a number she had cleared in four straight contests before last year. She's consumed at least 37 hot dogs in eight of her 11 competitions since claiming her first belt in 2014.

The projections aren't quite as lofty for Lesco, who features a roughly 30% chance to finish with at least 25 HDB, while Dee owns a roughly 20% chance to hit that mark.

🎯 Nathan's hot dog eating contest picks & predictions 2026

After last year's debacle in which every single competitor fell below their totals on a blisteringly hot day at Coney Island, I'm expecting a bounce-back performance from Chestnut and the other top competitors on Saturday.

Joey Chestnut to eat 70+ hot dogs

The GOAT cleared this total last year despite the overcooked conditions on stage that dried up the buns and dragged down the totals for everyone. While another hot day is in the forecast for Saturday, I expect Chestnut to maintain pace this year - he's somehow only getting better with age, as evidenced by his 83-dog count in his 2024 Netflix special.

Patrick Bertoletti to win (without Chestnut)

Bertoletti is the only man in this field besides Chestnut to actually won a Nathan's contest - clearing the field by five HDB in 2024 - and he finished in second last year despite falling well short of his own expectation. He's the highest pedigree competitive eater on stage with Chestnut, and I like the value here with a 65-cent share returning $1 in total.

Miki Sudo to eat fewer than 35 hot dogs

Sudo downed just 33 HDB last year but still won comfortably with Lesco (22.75) and Danielle DiSapia (21.5) the only other competitors to clear 20. While she's topped this mark in all but three contests, she simply doesn't have a rival pushing her to chase big totals - and with extreme heat expected again this weekend, I don't see her topping last year.

Best hot dog contest picks & predictions

Here are all three of my top picks for the hot dog contest, including the best price at Kalshi converted to American odds using our odds converter.

🏆 Past Nathan's hot dog eating contest winners

Here's a look at the winner and total for every contest since 2011, when the women's contest began:

*Chestnut did not compete in 2024; Sudo did not compete in 2021.

❓ Nathan's hot dog eating contest rules and FAQs

How does the Nathan's hot dog eating contest work?

Competitors get 10 minutes to eat as many Nathan's Famous hot dogs and buns (HDB) as possible. Partial dogs count, measured to the eighth. Each eater has a scorekeeper, and messy eating or a "reversal" (vomiting) draws a penalty or disqualification. A tie triggers a sudden-death eat-off.

How much do the hot dog contest winners get?

The champion in each division takes home $10,000 out of a roughly $40,000 total purse. Second place gets $5,000 and third gets $2,500.

What is the hot dog eating contest record?

Joey Chestnut set the Nathan's record with 76 hot dogs and buns 2021, while he owns the world record of 83 HDB that he set in a Netflix exhibition against Takeru Kobayashi in 2024. Miki Sudo owns the women's record at 51, also set in 2024.

Who has won the most Nathan's hot dog eating contests?

Joey Chestnut owns the record with 17 men's titles, while Miki Sudo has won 11 titles on the women's side - both well above any other competitor.

How do you qualify for the Nathan's hot dog eating contest?

Eaters must be under contract with Major League Eating, which has sanctioned the event since 1997. Newcomers earn a spot by winning one of the regional qualifiers held earlier in the year.