NASCAR Betting Odds at Bristol: Expert Picks, Predictions & Long Shots for Bass Pro Shops Night Race

 The 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET resumes NASCAR's postseason. It's the final race of the Round of 16 before four drivers are eliminated.

• Denny Hamlin opened as the betting favorite (+500) across our best sports betting sites, but has been overtaken by Kyle Larson, who has odds as short as +300
• Hamlin won this race last year and took the Bristol spring race in March - his odds are as long as +750 now
• Ryan Blaney has been one of the biggest risers following Friday's qualifying - his odds shortened from +1800 to as short as +800

Here is a look at the latest NASCAR betting odds for Bristol and our best 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race expert picks, predictions, and long shots.

NASCAR odds for Bristol night race

(Bristol odds via our best sports betting apps | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

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2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race expert picks, predictions

NASCAR picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Picks made Friday before practice or qualifying. Odds subject to change.

• Toyota to win (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Denny Hamlin to win (+500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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How to bet NASCAR at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway is already a track that brings out the intensity in NASCAR drivers with its culture of high speeds and bump-and-run racing.

At just 0.533 miles long, this short track features steep banking of 24 to 28 degrees with two 650-foot straightaways - providing the ideal runway for drivers to careen around the corners in close quarters to the rest of the field.

Add in the fact that four drivers will be eliminated after Saturday night's race, and we could be in for a thrilling finish at Bristol.

Hamlin's house

Nobody has more to gain (or lose) this weekend than Hamlin, who sits six points below the cut line after an uninspiring stretch for the No. 11 team.

They've clearly staked their playoff chances on Saturday's race at Bristol, where Hamlin owns four career wins and has won back-to-back races while leading a combined 305 laps.

That includes the spring race in March and last year's Bass Pro Shops Night Race, after which Hamlin gloated to a chorus of boos:

Hamlin is coming off consecutive finishes outside the top 20, but he was clearly taking a conservative approach the last two weeks trying to avoid a DNP and the nearly insurmountable hole that would present from a points perspective.

We should see a far more aggressive Hamlin at Bristol, a track that rewards veteran drivers who can manage their tires and the traffic around them. There's a reason he's won four times here - second-most behind Kyle Busch (eight) - while doubling any other driver with four poles.

His +500 odds to win the race offer a decent value at FanDuel, but I'm especially bullish on his +140 odds to finish in the top three with that prop priced at +120 or worse everywhere else.

Value on Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

Hamlin isn't the only driver on his racing team who desperately needs a win on Saturday.

Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs is the one sitting six points above Hamlin in the playoff standings, while Martin Truex Jr. is below both of them and needs a strong showing to avoid elimination in his final full-time season.

Christopher Bell is sitting pretty ahead of the Round of 12, but he could still use a win to build an early lead for the Championship 4 after a dominant regular season.

Hamlin (first), Truex (second), Gibbs (ninth), and Bell (10th) all finished in the top 10 in the spring race at Bristol, combining to lead 383 of a possible 500 laps. All but Truex were in the top five of last year's night race, too.

As if that wasn't enough, JGR also won the ARCA Menards Series East championship on Thursday when William Sawalich took the checkered flag at Bristol:

Four of the top six drivers in Saturday's race compete for Joe Gibbs Racing, which is dealing at +120 odds via Caesars.

Those are the same odds that Toyota is catching via DraftKings to be the winning manufacturer - a bet priced at +105 across three of our five best sportsbooks.

It all adds up to a compelling wager on Toyota to reach Victory Lane for the eighth time in its last 16 races at Bristol.

Will overtime streak continue?

Two weeks ago in our Quaker State 400 predictions, we marveled at the plus-money odds for an overtime finish at Atlanta, which had become a regular occurrence to close the regular season.

We've since seen each of the first two playoff races extend beyond the final scheduled lap as the intensity builds and drivers take more chances late in the race.

In total, eight of the last 11 races and six of the last seven featured overtime after last week's thrilling finish:

Given the already combative nature of Bristol racing - and especially in the annual night race - I love these +250 odds at Caesars on another late caution forcing a green-white-checkered to close out Saturday's race.

NASCAR long shots at Bristol

This isn't the best race to bet long shots, which is why we recommend sticking with the favorites in Hamlin and Toyota.

That said, given the unpredictability that we've seen so far in the NASCAR playoffs, I have my eyes on these three drivers at long odds:

Ty Gibbs (+1000)

OK, these odds don't exactly scream "long shot," but I have to shout out the value on Gibbs at 10/1 after his stellar showing in the Bristol spring race.

The 21-year-old led 137 laps at this track in March - second behind only Hamlin - en route to a ninth-place finish. He's since finished in the top five in two of his last five races entering Saturday's Round of 16 finale.

The youngster is in jeopardy of missing the cut if he doesn't show out Saturday, and with a veteran team behind him, he's worth a shot with a winning $10 wager returing a $100 profit at DraftKings.

Kyle Busch (+2200)

Busch missed the playoffs by a hair but has been one of the best drivers over the last month, finishing in the top seven in each of his last four oval races with two runners-up in that stretch.

He also boasts twice as many wins at Bristol (eight) as anyone else in the field, though he's finished 20th or worse in four straight. That's why he's dealing at such long but intriguing odds at bet365.

Zane Smith (+50000)

As far as 500/1 long shots go, you could do worse than Smith, whose last 10 races include finishes of fifth at Watkins Glen, seventh at Michigan, and second at Nashville.

He crashed in the Cup Series race in Bristol earlier this year but finished third in the Truck Series. If he can put together a solid run on Saturday like he has in recent weeks, he should have better than a 0.20% chance to win as these odds imply.

Best NASCAR long shots at Bristol

• Ty Gibbs to win (+1000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
• Kyle Busch to win (+2200 via bet365) ⭐⭐
• Zane Smith to win (+50000 via bet365) ⭐

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Best NASCAR prop bets at Bristol

• Denny Hamlin top three (+140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Race to go to overtime (+250 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Winning car number Under 11.5 (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐

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Bristol night race past winners

How to watch NASCAR at Bristol (Bass Pro Shops Night Race)

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 21 at 7 p.m. ET
• Track: Bristol Motor Speedway (Bristol, Tenn.)
• Length: 0.533 miles (500 laps, 266 total miles)
• How to watch: USA Network
• Defending winner: Denny Hamlin

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