AT&T Byron Nelson Prop Picks and Matchups: Will Scheffler Shine Again?

Jon Metler

Last Updated: May 11, 2022 2:00 AM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

AUGUSTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 10: Scottie Scheffler waves to the crowd during the Green Jacket Ceremony after winning the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club on April 10, 2022 in Augusta, Georgia. Andrew Redington/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Andrew Redington / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The AT&T Byron Nelson field at TPC Craig Ranch includes top players such as Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Dustin Johnson. We have selected several matchups and props for this week's tournament.

This is the third consecutive tournament that provides us with limited course history to work with, as it's only the second time this tournament will be held at TPC Craig Ranch. Though we may lack course history, there's no shortage of star power in this week's field as everyone prepares for the PGA Championship.

https://twitter.com/PGATOUR/status/1523812560700596225

The AT&T Byron Nelson was a birdie-fest last year as Kyoung-hoon Lee won with a score of -25. Six golfers finished with at -20 or better. Despite Lee's return to the field, he's unlikely to be successful while defending his title, as his odds of winning the AT&T Byron Nelson for the second straight time are over +10000.

Here are the top matchups and props for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.

AT&T Byron Nelson Matchup Picks

J.J. Spaun (-110) vs. Ian Poulter (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

McKinney, Texas, is the home of TPC Craig Ranch. Spaun lifted the trophy at the Valero Texas Open the last time he played in Texas.

He should be juiced as the favorite in this matchup given how the two are performing this season and their current form. The only reason he isn't is that Poulter's name value will garner a larger handle than Spaun.

The 31-year-old has posted an average SG: total of 0.63 in 2021, while Poulter has recorded an average SG: total of 0.17. Favor Spaun in this matchup with the wager -110 each way.

Justin Thomas (+105) vs. Scottie Scheffler (via DraftKings)

This play is all about backing a golfer who's extremely high on my power rankings and is receiving a plus-money price.

Scheffler may have notched four victories in 2022, including at the Masters. But he's statistically closer to Thomas than this line suggests. Thomas is averaging 2.27 SG: total on the season, while Scheffler averages 2.31 SG: total. That's a very small difference, and not one that should make Scheffler a -130 favorite in his matchup.

Sam Burns (-110) vs. Xander Schauffele (via DraftKings)

Schauffele winning the Zurich Classic alongside Patrick Cantlay was so fitting to his career narrative. He only wins in tournaments with an unusual field. Meanwhile, Burns has won two tournaments in 2022. Unlike Schauffele, Burns competed in the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2021. He finished second while gaining strokes across all four major categories.

Burns is the better golfer in this matchup, and he's more familiar with the TPC Craig Ranch course. At -110, I'm more than happy to back Burns against Schauffele.

AT&T Byron Nelson Top Prop Picks

To make the cut parlay: Will Zalatoris, Tommy Fleetwood, and Cameron Champ (+183 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Zalatoris hasn't missed the cut in eight straight tournaments, and he's finished inside the top 10 in three consecutive events. He finished T-17 at TPC Craig Ranch during the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson.

I'm trying to avoid golfers this week who may be focused on the PGA Championship, and Fleetwood doesn't fall into that category. He cannot afford to punt on a tournament while ranked 81st in the FedEx Cup standings.

Champ has been playing excellent golf of late after posting back-to-back top-10 finishes. The most important thing for Champ is that he's been successful while putting. He averaged 1.60 SG: putting at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here.

Top 30: Luke Donald (+480 via FanDuel)

Donald finished T-25 while displaying impressive iron play during the Wells Fargo Championship. He's gained strokes on approach in six of his last eight tournaments, and Donald averaged 1.83 SG: approach at the Wells Fargo Championship.

The 44-year-old competed in the AT&T Byron Nelson last season and finished T-13. Donald finished among the top 15 here in 2021 due again to quality iron play, averaging 1.94 SG: approach. He's in fine form with his irons again now, making a +480 bet for Donald to finish inside of the top 30 intriguing.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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AT&T Byron Nelson prop picks made on 5/10/2022 at 3:22 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.