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AT&T Byron Nelson Odds, Picks, and PGA Tour Preview: Top Names Prepare for PGA Championship

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AT&T Byron Nelson Odds, Picks, and PGA Tour Preview: Top Names Prepare for PGA Championship
Will Zalatoris lines up a putt on the 18th green during the final round of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images via AFP.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the field taking the opportunity to gear up for the PGA Championship at this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Below, we assess the odds and offer up our top AT&T Byron Nelson outright picks.

Still atop the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), Scottie Scheffler will tee it up for the first time since winning the Masters at this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. Fellow former major winners Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama join him. They’re all using this week to prepare for the 2022 PGA Championship. Scheffler is the consensus betting favorite in the field of 156.

Scheffler is seeking his fifth win of 2022 this week. However, he finished T-47 during the PGA Tour’s debut at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021. K.H. Lee returns to TPC Craig Ranch as the defending AT&T Byron Nelson champion. His maiden PGA Tour victory came by a three-stroke margin over Sam Burns at -25.

Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.

AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

SEE ALSO: U.S. Open Odds and Picks 2022

AT&T Byron Nelson Odds Analysis

Scheffler is this week’s consensus favorite, with PointsBet offering the best available odds at +1100. That represents an implied win probability of 8.33% compared to the 12.50% that the +700 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook suggest. Justin Thomas holds the second-best outright odds across the market.

Discrepancies and value start to emerge beyond the top two. DraftKings is looking most favorably upon Will Zalatoris with +1400 odds, while the rest of our top-rated sportsbooks offer odds of +2200 for him to win. DraftKings is offering market-high odds on Spieth and Koepka as they tune up for the year’s second major. Lee is offered between +8000 and +10000 as the defending champion of this event.

When making bets this week, we can also contrast the odds to win the AT&T Byron to the odds for the PGA Championship next week. Zalatoris, for example, is +3500 at DraftKings to win the PGA Championship.

TPC Craig Ranch Course Profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,468 yards
Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Craig Ranch played as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour in 2021. With K.H. Lee winning by three strokes at -25, five others finished better than -20. Twelve holes played below par, with the most difficult being the 492-yard, par-4 16th at a scoring average of 4.204.

The Tom Weiskopf design offers very little resistance to low scores from tee to green. Five players averaged 2.16 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round or better in this event last year. Lee led the field with 3.83 SG: total per round, including 2.71 SG: tee-to-green, 2.07 SG: approach, and 1.13 SG: putting.

While five of the 10 par 4s range from 450 to 500 yards, the length at TPC Craig Ranch primarily comes from the par 3s. Three of the four holes top 200 yards, with a long of 232. Those holes were also three of the six that played above par in 2021.

AT&T Byron Nelson Key Stats

  • Birdie or better percentage
  • SG: tee-to-green
  • SG: approach
  • Par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards

Low-scoring tournaments are tough to assess from a statistical standpoint, as golfers can card their low scores in any number of ways. Thus, we’re looking at a lower number of stats than usual while weighing current form and pedigree most heavily.

Zalatoris and Thomas rank second and third, respectively, on the PGA Tour in SG: tee-to-green in 2022. Other players in the top 10 in the field this week are Luke List (fourth) and Joaquin Niemann (ninth). They’re available at +13000 and +3500, respectively, at DraftKings.

AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

  • Will Zalatoris (+2200 via BetMGM)
  • Talor Gooch (+4500 via DraftKings)
  • Luke List (+13000 via DraftKings)

Who Will Win the AT&T Byron Nelson?

Zalatoris (+2200)

The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year comes into the week ranked 28th in the OWGR, up from No. 34 at the end of 2021. Still without a Tour victory, he was the runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open and hasn't missed a cut through seven events in 2022, including a T-6 at the Masters.

Zalatoris is second on Tour in SG: tee-to-green and SG: approach, 29th in birdie or better percentage, and 67th in par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards. He tied for 17th during the inaugural running of this event at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, despite losing over a stroke per round on the greens. Zalatoris averaged 2.37 strokes gained or better on approach and from tee to green.

Let's trust that DraftKings has placed the proper price on Zalatoris to win this week and take the added value at PointsBet.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Gooch (+4500)

Talor Gooch is offered as low as +3700 to win at FanDuel Sportsbook. The 34th-ranked golfer in the world hasn't played since his T-14 finish at the Masters. He claimed his first PGA Tour victory at The RSM Classic in the fall, but Gooch has logged just one top-10 finish over 10 events since.

Despite his recent struggles, Gooch is still 25th on Tour this season in SG: tee-to-green, 19th in SG: approach, and 13th in birdie or better percentage. He tied for 39th during this event in 2021 while enjoying success on the greens. That success combined with his improved iron play this season makes the +4500 odds very appealing in this rather top-heavy pre-major field.

List (+13000)

List, who beat Zalatoris in a playoff at the Farmers Insurance Open, is offered at nearly 10 times the odds of his counterpart through DraftKings. The inflated +13000 odds come despite ranks of fourth in SG: tee-to-green, 13th in SG: approach, and 61st in birdie or better percentage. He's also tied for 35th in par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards.

FanDuel is offering a market low of +8000 for List to win. Getting just a few putts to fall after finishing T-61 with 0.89 strokes lost per round on the greens last year will put him in contention on Sunday.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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AT&T Byron Nelson picks made on 5/9/2022 at 3:40 p.m. ET.