Argonauts vs. Alouettes Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks: Can Fajardo Keep Montreal Perfect?
No team in the CFL is playing to the level of the Grey Cup champion Montreal Alouettes (5-0) right now, as they get set for a showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET from Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal, Quebec against the Toronto Argonauts (2-2) on Thursday.
In our Argonauts vs. Alouettes prediction, we break down why Montreal's poised to continue rising in the Grey Cup odds as it takes on its Eastern rival for the second time this season. The Alouettes enter the game as 7-point home favorites across our best sportsbooks in Canada after winning the last meeting by 10 points on the road.
Argonauts vs. Alouettes prediction
(Argonauts vs. Alouettes odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Alouettes -7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
How long will Montreal's winning streak last? This team isn't just the most well-rounded in the CFL, it's the most resilient after pulling off a stunning comeback in Week 5 against the Calgary Stampeders.
Down 23-9 just before half, the Alouettes surged back to win 30-26 with a last-minute TD run by Walter Fletcher. The win epitomized what makes Jason Maas' offense so scary: Cody Fajardo's command and poise.
The veteran QB might not be putting up the same numbers as Vernon Adams Jr. with the BC Lions, but he's clearly the second-best passer in the league and will be tough to stop for Toronto. The Argos are allowing the second-most points per game (33.8) in the CFL and the highest QB rating (117.1).
Offseason losses throughout the defense have hurt Toronto, especially in the secondary where it's allowing the second-most passing yards per game (307.5). With Fajardo's accuracy and decision making, the Argos will likely have a hard time stopping this passing attack.
Receiver Tyson Philpot has been a breakout star this season, and a Most Outstanding Canadian candidate, with the second-most receiving yards in the league (564). Meanwhile, receiver Kaion Julien-Grant (288) and Fletcher (232) both rank top 15, too.
With rain expected to have some impact on the game, Fletcher can get the job done on the ground if need be. He's fifth in the CFL in rushing yards (230), and Fajardo remains a threat as a runner with the 11th-most rushing yards (137).
Best defense in the league
What makes Montreal so terrifying though isn't Fajardo and the offense, it's Noel Thorpe's savage defense. The Als allow the least yards per game in the CFL (336), the fewest passing yards (241.8), the lowest QB rating (76.6), and give up the fewest points (19.8).
It could be a long day for Argos' QB Cameron Dukes in this matchup. After a hot start to the season, he's looked out of place and has thrown five interceptions in his last two outings.
Dukes is easily flustered when the pass rush gets on him and Montreal is second in the league in sacks (10) and has been opportunistic with six interceptions thus far.
Regardless of how Montreal looks on offense, I don't see any way Toronto can score enough points against this defense to cover. And if the Alouettes cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.01 profit.
Odds: -111 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.61%
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Argonauts vs. Alouettes first team to score
Alouettes
This is a tougher than normal market because Montreal is dealing with an injury to starting kicker David Cote. With Cote out for the second straight game, Jose Maltos will be kicking for the Alouettes. While he did go 3-for-3 in the win against Calgary. He was just 2-for-4 last season from 40-plus yards. Still, I'd take a shaky long-range kicker with this offense over Dukes and Co.
Between Fajardo, Fletcher, Philpot, and Julien-Grant, I think Montreal will move the ball against the Argos quickly. Even if the rain impacts Fajardo's ability to push the ball downfield, Fletcher has been dynamic this season and can be a nightmare as a check-down option in the passing game. A $10 bet pays a $5.99 profit if Montreal scores first.
Odds: -167 via Betway | Implied probability: 62.50%
Argonauts vs. Alouettes odds
Argonauts vs. Alouettes odds via Betway as of Wednesday at 11:40 a.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alouettes | -303 | -7 (-111) | Over: 50.5 (-111) |
| Argonauts | +240 | +7 (-111) | Under: 50.5 (-111) |
Argonauts vs. Alouettes game info
- When: Thursday, July 11 (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Where: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium (Montreal, Que.)
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 73 degrees, 9-mph winds, 60% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Alouettes -7 (-111 via Betway)
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