Braves vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Picks: Morton Puts L.A. on Brink of Elimination

The Braves, behind Charlie Morton, are looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as the NLCS shifts to Los Angeles. The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler as heavy favorites for Game 3.

Welcome back to the ranch. These are exciting times for sports betting with the MLB playoffs heating up, so let’s get right to it and dive into Tuesday’s NLCS matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Any old-school handicapper would look at this game and figure the Braves at +160 to be the more likely choice for your MLB picks. The Dodgers (106-56, minus-0.73 betting units, Under 81-70-10 during the regular season) are the large market and public team, and the defending World Series champs will be trotting out Walker Buehler today. A loss will put them on the brink of elimination.

Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday’s MLB matchup between the Braves and Dodgers (Odds via BetMGM).

Braves vs. Dodgers Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, October 19, 5:08 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

Braves vs. Dodgers Odds Analysis

As the public team in this matchup, and already having dropped the first two games of this series, the Dodgers are probably overpriced as –189 home favorites at BetMGM. They are available as low as –167 if you shop around, and the consensus is heavily favoring Los Angeles, so maybe that lower price isn’t so bad after all.

Turning to the Over/Under, we have a very common 7.5 runs on the board for the total, with 85 percent of early bettors on the Over. There’s almost no difference in juice among the sportsbooks, although BetMGM has the best deal at –105.

Braves vs. Dodgers Picks

Braves (+160)Under 7.5 (-115)Winning Margin: Braves by 1 run (+600)

Braves vs. Dodgers Predictions

Braves +160

The Braves were a bit disappointing during the regular season, posting their lowest win percentage of this four-year run at the top of the NL West. The stars do seem to align, though. The projections we’re looking at suggest they’re worth a small lean, and the consensus reports at SBR show 63 percent of bettors on Atlanta.

How can you not like the Braves at this price? They don’t hit quite as well as Los Angeles, nor do they measure up in the rotation and the bullpen. But they’re still a quality team in all three facets, and very much a live underdog after winning the first two games in Atlanta.

Having their No. 1 starter on the mound should help. Charlie Morton (3.18 FIP) is a proven playoff performer with a career record of 7-4 in 14 starts and he was sharp in his first playoff appearance this season against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, punching out nine over six innings.

The Dodgers, of course, have a rotation full of aces. Walker Buehler (3.16 FIP) gets the nod Tuesday and he’s no stranger to postseason play, making 13 starts since turning pro in 2017.

Buehler should sue for support, as he’s only 3-2 in that baker’s dozen. The Dodgers bullpen, one of the best in baseball, went a combined 5-3 in Buehler’s no-decisions. They also blew Game 1 of last year’s NLCS versus the Braves, before Buehler won Game 6.

Dodgers fans would also like to forget Buehler’s first playoff start against Atlanta. Game 3 of the 2018 NLDS was Buehler’s postseason debut and he gave up five runs (albeit on just two hits) in five innings of what turned out to be a 6-5 victory for the Braves. Yikes. Back the Braves at this great price.

Under 7.5 (-115)

Buehler is in good shape to help drive the Under cash. This is also a small lean, though, as the Over went 15-14-3 during the regular season with Buehler on the hill, while the Under went 16-15-2 for Morton.

Tuesday’s forecast doesn’t call for any inclement weather to help us out, but it is mid-October, so temperatures are a bit lower, with a peak of 70 degrees expected for first pitch.

That should help keep the ball from leaving the park and prevent the runs from piling up against these studs.

Braves by 1 run (+600)

Atlanta won Games 1 and 2 by a single run. As well as the Dodgers played this year, they only went 24-24 in games decided by one run, but the Braves were even worse at 26-31. That’s mostly just dumb luck.

Any game with two talented teams like this, with two strong starting pitchers on the hill, is likely decided by the slimmest of margins. That goes double when the total is this low.

Since we’re already leaning toward Atlanta, and its most likely margin of victory is one run, getting this MLB prop at +600 is a can of corn. Bet accordingly.