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Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Picks: Can Baltimore Prevent Boston From Getting to .500?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 5, 2022 10:37 AM EDT • 2 min 38 sec read.

Austin Hays #21 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates a solo home run in the sixth inning with Cedric Mullins #31 during a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 8, 2022, in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images via AFP.

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles head to Williamsport, PA, to put on a show for the Little Leaguers as part of the MLB Little League Classic. Read on for our Red Sox-Orioles MLB picks.

Boston and Baltimore have split the first two games of this three-game series. After the Orioles hit five home runs and won a 15-10 slugfest on Friday, the Red Sox responded with a 4-3 win Saturday. Bot teams are still within striking distance of a wild card spot.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Sunday’s game between the Red Sox and Orioles (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook).

Red Sox vs. Orioles Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, August 21, 7 p.m. ET
Location: BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field, Williamsport, PA
Weather: 84 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, Wind SSE 9-mph

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds Analysis

The Red Sox range from -110 at Caesars to -120 moneyline favorites at BetMGM . So far, the Red Sox are popular favorites, as 87% of the tickets and 85% of the cash have backed Boston on the ML.

All sportsbooks are in unison with a total of 9 runs. As of early Sunday morning, the Over had attracted 73% of the bets but just 23% of the cash.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Projected Pitchers

Nick Pivetta (9-9, 4.28 ERA, 1.288 WHIP) vs. Dean Kremer (5-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.294 WHIP)

Nick Pivetta is searching for a tenth victory, which would be a career-high. His ERA and WHIP are also on pace to be career-bests. He threw seven scoreless innings allowing one hit against Pittsburgh in his last start, which was his first win since June 24.

Dean Kremer is making his 14th start this season, which surpasses his previous high of 13 last season. Like Pivetta, Kremer is also coming off a victory, as he allowed two earned runs in seven innings (which tied a season-high) in a road start at Toronto.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Picks

Sbr Betting TicketThree Picks

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Red Sox vs. Orioles ML Pick

Orioles (+100)

Many continue to wait for the Orioles to fall off after they lost 110 games last year and shipped out Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline. However, Baltimore continues to hum along at 62-58.

Baltimore has continued winning thanks to an offense that ranks fifth in wRC+ (118) and fourth in wOBA (.335) since the calendar turned to August. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 11th in wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, so the edge offensively goes to the Orioles.

The Red Sox are 2-4 in Nick Pivetta's last six games against teams with a winning record and are 9-14  in their previous 22 games against teams over .500. We expect their struggles to continue on Sunday.

Red Sox vs. Orioles O/U Pick

Over 9 Runs (+100)

Since this game is at a neutral site, we rely on historical data to show how this field in Williamsport plays. The first three iterations of the MLB Little League Classic had at least eight runs scored before last year's 3-0 pitcher's duel between Cleveland Guardians and the Los Angeles Angels.

Kremer allowed four earned runs against Boston on Aug. 11, but the real reason for liking the Over is the sub-par play of each team's bullpen. Boston's 6.48 bullpen ERA over the last 30 days is more than a run worse than the 29th-ranked team, and Baltimore's 3.72 FIP in that span is just 18th.

Thus, even if each starting pitcher performs well, both offenses should light up the scoreboard in the late innings.

Mullins To Score a Run

Orioles leadoff man Cedric Mullins is 8-for-21 (.381) with a home run and a .409 wOBA in his career against Pivetta. That is the highest wOBA of any Orioles hitter with more than four at-bats against him. Mullins leads the Orioles with 64 runs scored and has crossed the plate at least once in three of his last four starts.

With us liking the Orioles to win and the Over to cash, we are tripling down with Mullins to score.

Where To Bet on Red Sox vs. Orioles Picks

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Red Sox-Orioles picks from 8/21/2022 at 7:18 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.