Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Sunday, Sept. 27
The last day of the regular season has a blend of games that mean something for playoff positioning and others where little is on the line other than pride. My best NRFI bets today focus mostly on the latter, finding value in several pitchers that have been hot of late.
With one of my top NRFI picks, I’m looking at the NL East matchup between the Mets and Nationals, especially because of Sean Manaea’s outstanding numbers against left-handed batters.
It may also shock some to read that I’m taking a flier on one of my two YRFI picks in a game where likely NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski is toeing the rubber.
My NRFI picks have cashed at a 69% clip over the last four days entering the weekend, and I look to finish the regular season on a high note.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 27
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates vs. Tigers NRFI (-122 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.82u | Jones has quietly been one of the NL’s best pitchers of late |
| Mets vs. Nationals NRFI (-120 via bet365) | 1u → 0.83u | Manaea’s splits against LHH should help him shut down Washington’s offense early |
| Cardinals vs. Brewers YRFI (+155 via bet365) | 1u → 1.55u | Pallante has allowed a .333 OBA to current Brewers hitters |
| Angels vs. Mariners YRFI (+130 via bet365) | 1u → 1.30u | Current Angels hitters have great power numbers against Gilbert |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 4.5 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Pirates vs. Tigers (3:10 ET)
- Jared Jones (3.87 ERA) vs. River Ryan (0.00 ERA)
- NRFI records: Pirates (86-75) vs. Tigers (82-79)
Jared Jones has been the ace of the Pirates pitching staff in September. This month alone, he has pitched to a 1.08 ERA over 25 innings, with a 35:4 K: BB ratio, .140 OBA, and .352 opponent OPS.
Most impressive of all, he ended his last start with a 0.78 FIP, the best among all MLB pitchers this month (min. 15 IP).
On the other side, River Ryan makes his second appearance of the season. His first went swimmingly well, as he held the Nationals to two hits over three scoreless innings.
📡 SBR Edge: Is Ryan a future star?
To this point River Ryan is known as one of the biggest trade pieces involved in the Tarik Skubal trade to the Dodgers, but he has only allowed three runs through his first 23.1 MLB innings.
🔥 NRFI/YRFI picks today
Mets vs. Nationals (3:05 ET)
- Sean Manaea (4.67 ERA) vs. DJ Herz (9.00 ERA)
- NRFI records: Mets (79-82) vs. Nationals (80-81)
Sean Manaea has held opposing left-handed batters to a .386 slugging percentage, with 13 of his 42 hits allowed in that split going for extra bases. James Wood is back hitting atop the Nationals lineup, but Manaea has neutralized him over his career, holding him to two hits in 13 at-bats.
Fellow teammate CJ Abrams, who also has 30-plus home runs, hasn’t fared much better with five hits (and no home runs) in 17 head-to-head at-bats.
This wager seemingly comes down to DJ Herz’s ability to manage a clean first inning against Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, among others. Herz allowed two earned runs in the first inning of his first start, but I’m banking on him holding left-handed batters hitless as he did against the Tigers.
Cardinals vs. Brewers (3:10 ET)
- Andre Pallante (3.61 ERA) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (1.86 ERA)
- YRFI records: Cardinals (78-83) vs. Brewers (77-84)
Andre Pallante toes the rubber for the Cardinals and has pitched to a respectable .231 OBA in September. That suggests he deserves a better ERA than 3.86 over 21 innings. But he is likely due further regression against a Brewers lineup that has combined for a .333/.418/.510 slash line and three home runs in 105 at-bats against him.
Milwaukee is one of seven teams Pallante has thrown double-digit innings against this season, and his 9.00 ERA against the Brewers is the highest against all teams in that split (his next-worst is 6.30 against the Giants).
All it takes is one team to score to cash this YRFI wager, but for what it’s worth, the Cardinals are one of five teams to homer multiple times off Jacob Misiorowski this year.
Angels vs. Mariners (3:10 ET)
- Yusei Kikuchi (4.88 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (3.81 ERA)
- YRFI records: Angels (81-80) vs. Mariners (88-73)
Logan Gilbert has been successful against current Angels hitters, holding them to a combined .217/.281/.466 slash line. But one troubling trend is that seven of his 13 hits allowed in that split have gone for extra bases (including four home runs).
Gilbert has had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard this season and has allowed at least one homer in seven consecutive starts (10 home runs total in that span).
Gilbert has allowed five first-inning home runs while pitching to a 4.94 ERA in the first frame. Not only has he allowed a .306/.346/.476 slash line in that split, but his .418 BABIP is the most troubling trend.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
With my two NRFI plays of this four-leg parlay, I’m backing two starting pitchers (Manaea and Jones) that are either amid a red-hot stretch or have neutralized the opponent’s biggest bats. Conversely, my two YRFI plays fade a former All-Star (Gilbert) who has troubling first-inning trends, and a Cardinals pitcher who has struggled in the divisional rivalry.
💵 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
- Pirates-Tigers NRFI
- Mets-Nationals NRFI
- Cardinals-Brewers YRFI
- Angels-Mariners YRFI
Best odds: +1857 via bet365 (0.1u -> 1.86u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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