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Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves reacts in the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies, and we offer our MLB best bets and player props based on the best MLB odds.
Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves reacts in the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images via AFP.

The first weekend of MLB regular-season action features a jam-packed slate, and we're offering our best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.

Following a smaller slate on Friday, every team is back in action on Saturday.

The day began with a battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets at Citi Field and continued with a game between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox.

Looking ahead, the day will conclude with another meeting between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners at 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park. The two teams have split the first pair of games thus far.

Serving as the main event of the day is a rematch of last year's NLDS showdown between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The World Series odds-contender Braves mounted a comeback win on Friday and look to keep that momentum going into the weekend.

Meanwhile, the AL East showdown between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays continues, with the teams splitting the series' first two games at Tropicana Field.

Who will come away with wins on our first day of weekend baseball?

Here are our MLB player props and best bets for Saturday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s MLB best bets

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Saturday’s MLB player props

Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

OddsUnder 5.5 (-105)Under 5.5 (-104)Under 5.5 (+105)Under 5.5 (-119)Under 5.5 (+100)

Game info: Brewers vs. Mets | Moneyline: Mets (-125 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 8 (-105)/Under 8 (-115) via bet365 | Start time: 1:40 p.m. ET

Luis Severino gets a fresh start in 2024 with the Mets following a horrific season with the New York Yankees. The big right-hander finished the campaign with a 6.65 ERA over 89 1/3 innings and managed a career-worst 7.96 strikeouts per nine innings.

He faces a Brewers team that was almost directly in the middle of the league in terms of strikeout rate last season, ranking 14th in the majors. Milwaukee struck out only seven times in the series opener on Friday.

Severino is projected for 4.8 punchouts on Saturday when we take the average from two trusted models. Based on that projection, we're getting nearly 30% positive expected value on this bet.

Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the betting industry, has seen plenty of action on the Under on Saturday morning. It opened at +102 but has been bet to as short as -144. 

Max Fried Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

OddsUnder 5.5 (+120)Under 5.5 (-104)Under 5.5 (+110)Under 5.5 (+104)Under 5.5 (+100)

Game info: Braves vs. Phillies | Moneyline: Braves (-135 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 8 (-115)/Under 8 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Max Fried cranked things up a notch in 2023 when it came to sitting down opposing hitters via the punchout. Following a few years in which he recorded less than a strikeout per inning, he returned to his 2019 form, managing 9.27 K/9.

The Phillies were in the bottom third last year in terms of team strikeout rate with a 23.9% mark, tying them with the Yankees for the 10th-worst. The main culprits for that high percentage were Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh, though the latter will likely sit on Saturday in favor of Whit Merrifield, who strikes out at a far lower clip.

Philadelphia's ability to slot in some right-handers against Fried is likely one reason his average strikeout projection is just 5.16 on Saturday, with all three projection models closely aligned on his number.

Most of our best sports betting sites have Fried's total set at 6.5, with the Under heavily juiced. Pinnacle prices Under 6.5 at a double-take-worthy -207. However, by using our projections to attack DraftKings' odds on Under 5.5, we're getting roughly 25% +EV on this bet.

Grayson Rodriguez Under 6.5 strikeouts (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

OddsUnder 6.5 (-145)Under 6.5 (-150)Under 6.5 (-135)Under 6.5 (-164)Under 6.5 (-135)

Game info: Angels vs. Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-162 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Baltimore Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez had a first half of his rookie season to forget last year. He struggled mightily, moving from one of the contenders by the MLB Rookie of the Year odds to completely out of the conversation. However, his second half was very different, and he finished the campaign with respectable numbers and an impressive 9.52 K/9.

He takes on a Los Angeles Angels team that struck out for fun in 2023, as it took the walk of shame at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Corbin Burnes annihilated the Angels on Opening Day, recording 11 punchouts over six innings.

However, this is likely a case of a total being set too high. Rodriguez should be trading at a total of 5.5 strikeouts on Saturday based on his average projection of 5.21. However, all of our best sports betting apps have his total at 6.5, with the Under juiced as short as -164.

Pinnacle opened with the Under priced at -156, and following some brief buyback on the Over early Saturday morning, it's been mostly one-way traffic, with the Under now sitting at -185.

Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 strikeouts (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

OddsUnder 6.5 (-105)Under 6.5 (-124)N/AUnder 6.5 (-111)Under 6.5 (+100)

Game info: Red Sox vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-155 via DraftKings) | Total: Over 7.5 (+100)/Under 7.5 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET

Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert is known more for his impeccable control rather than being a dominant strikeout artist. He managed only 8.92 K/9 last season, but his microscopic walk rate and improved ability to induce ground balls allowed him to record an impressive 3.73 ERA in 2023.

The Red Sox were quite good at avoiding strikeouts last season, nearly landing in the top 10 with a 22.2% K rate. The only issue with that data is that this Boston team looks quite different from last year's, which is why we will always look to the daily projections rather than only use information from the previous season (or, worse, the first two games of this one).

Gilbert's strikeout projection across our three trusted models is nearly identical at 5.98, 5.91, and 5.95. The latter ends up serving as the average of the three, providing us with nearly 20% +EV on this bet.

Pinnacle opened with the Over priced at -129 and the Under at -106, but the script has been flipped since then. The Under has been bet to -144, making these even-money odds at bet365 - the only one of our best sportsbooks offering such a price - extremely valuable.

MLB best bets made Saturday at 8 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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