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Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles watches a hit ball during the third inning of his MLB debut against the Boston Red Sox, and we're offering our top MLB player props and best bets based on the best MLB odds.
Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles watches a hit ball during the third inning of his MLB debut against the Boston Red Sox. Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images via AFP.

Getaway day in the majors leaves us with just six games on the docket, but we're still offering our top MLB player props and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.

Mother Nature has been unrelenting this season, causing chaos for several teams, but none more so than the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. Both teams have seen multiple games postponed due to adverse weather conditions, and their scheduled matchup against each other on Wednesday was no exception.

After enduring yet another weather-related delay on Thursday, the Mets and Braves finally kicked off their game just after 1 p.m. ET.

The highlight of the evening promises to be a highly anticipated matchup featuring baseball's top prospect and the favorite by the MLB Rookie of the Year odds, Jackson Holliday. The Baltimore Orioles, led by Holliday, will take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.

We looked at the rookie's impact on the Orioles with our Jackson Holliday odds and bets for 2024.

Here are our MLB player props and best bets for Thursday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB best bets

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Thursday’s MLB player props

Jon Gray Under 6.5 strikeouts (-129 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐  

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsUnder 6.5 (-130)Under 6.5 (-142)Under 6.5 (-143)Under 6.5 (-129)Under 6.5 (-145)

Game info: Athletics vs. Rangers | Moneyline: Rangers (-180 via Betway) | Total: Over 9.5(-105)/Under 9.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 2:35 p.m. ET

Right-hander Jon Gray had a very strong first season with the World Series odds-contender Texas Rangers after leaving the Colorado Rockies and Coors Field in 2022. He managed 9.47 strikeouts per nine innings and had an ERA below 4.00. However, his strikeouts dipped to 8.12 per nine last season, and his ERA finished at 4.12. Now, through two starts in 2024, Gray has struck out just five over 7 1/3, giving up 12 hits and six walks.

Working in Gray's favor, though, is that he has perhaps the easiest matchup there is. The Oakland Athletics are terrible at scoring runs (third-fewest), stealing bases (second-fewest), and just simply getting hits (fourth-lowest average). On top of that, they also strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Can Gray take advantage of that?

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Our projections suggest yes, but only to a certain extent. Gray is expected to rack up more strikeouts than he did in either of his first two starts, but that projected total of 5.51 is still far below the seven he'd need to clear this total.

Gray's total opened at 7.5 at our best sports betting sites before the Under was obliterated overnight.

These -129 odds at Caesars - and the similar -130 at DraftKings - provide us with nearly 21% positive expected value based on our projection, and they could soon be more in line with the -140 price you see elsewhere.

Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is already as short as -179.

Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 total bases (-140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
OddsOver 0.5 (-150)Over 0.5 (-185)Over 0.5 (-143)Over 0.5 (-152)Over 0.5 (-140)

Game info: Orioles vs. Red Sox | Moneyline: Orioles (-125 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) via Betway | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Orioles rookie Jackson Holliday failed to make much noise in his MLB debut, going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Our projections suggested there was value on his Under 0.5 hits prop, and we bet it accordingly. However, we're seeing value on his Over 0.5 total bases for Wednesday's game against the Red Sox.

Holliday and the Orioles square off against Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock on Wednesday. Whitlock has been brilliant through two starts, though he's lasted only 9 1/3 combined innings between the two. Considering Holliday hits at the bottom of the order, that means he may face Whitlock only twice before getting to take hacks against relievers he already faced in his debut.

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Based on the average projection between two of our trusted models, we're getting roughly 7.5% +EV on this bet with bet365's -140 odds. As you can see, most of our other best sports betting apps are hovering around -150.

My only worry about this bet is we've seen Pinnacle's Over 0.5 total bases move from its opening price of -174 to -150, suggesting sharp action on the Under. However, we're going to trust the projections and baseball's top prospect's ability to bounce back from an ugly debut.

MLB best bets made Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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