MLB Best Bets Today: Picks & Odds for Sunday, Sept. 27

While there is not anything to play for in 11 of MLB's 15 games today, my MLB best bets today focus on the remaining four that have a direct impact on the final playoff spots.

In the AL West, Houston and Texas are deadlocked at identical 80-81 records, but the Astros would clinch the division with a win because of their head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Rangers. Philadelphia also owns a one-game lead over Arizona for the NL's final wild card spot, which would go to the Phillies unless they avoid the worst-case scenario of a loss and Diamondbacks win. 

How do we see these all-important games shaking out today?

⚾ MLB best bets today: Picks for Sept. 27

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.74 units

💰 Best MLB bet today

Phillies team total Under 3.5 runs (+102)

The Phillies were so desperate to stop the bleeding yesterday and avoid an epic late-season collapse that they pitched Aaron Nola on two days’ rest. That move backfired when he allowed three runs on four hits in the first inning, including a 399-foot bomb by Junior Caminero.

Prior to the 12-1 loss, Philadelphia was 8-13 over its previous 21 games. During that span, it averaged 3.5 runs per game, batted .214, hit just 15 home runs, and logged a collective .632 OPS. The Phillies have now scored three runs over a four-game losing streak, and I don’t expect its offense to now break out against a pitcher who is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his last five starts (Nick Martinez).

🔥 More MLB best bets today

Astros-Athletics Under 9.5 (-115)

The Astros are in a “win and in” situation, and have lofty -176 moneyline odds to clinch the division against the 97-loss Athletics. But even though they’re the rightful favorites, I’m banking on a lower-scoring game with the pressure mounting.

Prior to Houston getting a three-home run game from Lucas Spence this week, its outfielders entered Thursday collectively batting .108 and slugging .193 with 28 strikeouts over an eight-game stretch. So while Yordan Alvarez is showing why he will likely win the AL MVP by slashing .417/.500/.750 over the last seven days, he still has a huge load to carry offensively if Houston’s outfield isn’t producing.

Twins ML (+106)

Minnesota is over .500 against two of the AL’s three divisions, but its 17-13 record against AL West opponents is its best split. I expect the Twins to end Texas’ season with an upset victory this afternoon.

Twins righty Dean Kremer has pitched to a solid .234 OBA at home, and has been equally tough on right-handed batters (.224 OBA) as lefties (.235). He has done his best work late in the season with his 3.05 September ERA and .192 OBA being his best of any individual month. He is also coming off a six-inning one-hit gem against the Angels, which was just his second time recording 18-plus outs in nine starts with the Twins.

Diamondbacks ML (-126)

No disrespect to Arizona’s torrid 6-1 stretch that put it within striking distance to clinch the NL’s final playoff spot if Philadelphia loses today. The Padres are the better team having gone an MLB-best 16-3 since Sept. 6, as no other team has more than 14 wins in that span. But San Diego has the top NL wild card spot wrapped up and knows it is hosting the Cubs on Tuesday, so I’d expect some of its veteran players (like the four in the lineup who have hit 20-plus home runs) to get a much deserved day off.

Arizona’s Michael Soroka has the team’s second-lowest ERA (3.11) of any pitcher who has thrown at least 100 innings this year. He also has the lowest WHIP (1.09), which includes four hits allowed over his previous 12 innings.

🚀 Best MLB parlay picks today

This four-leg parlay encapsulates all the scenarios that have a direct impact on MLB's final playoff spots today, and in most cases, sides with the team in the most advantageous situation and fades the team dealing with pressure. That is the case with expecting the Diamondbacks to beat a Padres team with nothing to play for today, as well as backing the Phillies lineup to continue its struggles.