Astros vs. Red Sox MLB Picks: Value on Houston as Rare Underdog

Henry John

Last Updated: May 17, 2022 8:41 AM EDT • 5 min 44 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

BOSTON, MA - MAY 16: Chas McCormick #20 of the Houston Astros watches his solo home run against the Boston Red Sox during the fourth inning at Fenway Park on May 16, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) (Photo by Winslow Townson / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Offensive fireworks are expected at hitter-friendly Fenway Park in this rematch of the 2021 ALCS. Keep reading for our Astros-Red Sox picks.

One of the more notable Major League Baseball games scheduled for Tuesday is a rematch of the 2021 American League Championship Series. The defending AL Pennant winning Houston Astros will hit the road to take on the Boston Red Sox in primetime at Fenway Park.

Despite losing the opener of this three-game set in Boston, the Astros (23-13 Straight Up, 10-26 Over/Under) still sit ten games over .500 on the season. This status is largely thanks to an 11-game winning streak that Houston rattled off from May 2-13. Despite having now lost two of their last three games entering Tuesday’s matchup, the Astros lead the AL West Division over the Los Angeles Angels thanks to their winning percentage.

As for the Red Sox (14-21 SU, 11-21-3 O/U), the 2022 campaign has not exactly gotten off to a pretty start. Entering Tuesday’s contest, Boston sits seven games below .500 and in fourth place in the loaded AL East. On the bright side, the Red Sox have won three of their last four coming into the day. What was expected to be a lethal offense has sputtered out of the gates.

But perhaps the Sox are starting to figure things out. Yesterday’s win marked the fourth time in the last six games that Boston scored six runs or more.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s game between the Astros and Red Sox (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Astros vs. Red Sox Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, May 17, 7:10 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: Fenway Park, Boston, MAWeather: 63?, Partly Cloudy, 0% chance of precipitation, 14 MPH winds (blowing left to right)

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds Analysis

There has been very minimal market movement when it comes to the moneyline for Tuesday’s Astros-Red Sox matchup. Oddsmakers initially set Boston as a -120 favorite. At the time of writing, that number has dipped all of three cents to a consensus price of Red Sox -117.

The range of ML offerings on Boston across the MLB betting market currently extends from -115 up to -126. Despite the Red Sox being priced as a home favorite, the Astros have actually garnered the majority of public bets to win this matchup. 60% of all ML tickets and 70% of all runline bets are backing Houston.

As for the total, the current market consensus of 8.5 matches the line at which bookmakers opened this game. The majority of shops are juiced slightly to the Over on this number.

Astros vs. Red Sox Projected Pitchers

Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP)

Taking the mound for the visiting Astros on Tuesday will be righthander Jose Urquidy. The 27-year-old has not been particularly sharp out of the gates this season after exceeding expectations in 2021. Urquidy enters this matchup with a sub-par 4.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.33. Compared to his final numbers from a season ago (3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), it’s clear that Urquidy is capable of better performances moving forward.

For the Red Sox, veteran Nathan Eovaldi will be the starting pitcher for Tuesday night’s game. The 32-year-old allowed exactly six hits and three earned runs in each of his last two starts. He has been particularly vulnerable to the long ball early in the season. Opponents have combined to hit nine home runs off of Eovaldi in his first seven starts. On the bright side, his 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are both respectable at this juncture, as are his 42 strikeouts on the season.

Astros vs. Red Sox Picks

Moneyline: Astros (+110 via Caesars) ???Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+180 via FanDuel) ?Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110 via Caesars) ????Player Prop: Jose Urquidy under 4.5 strikeouts (-155 via FanDuel) ????

Astros vs. Red Sox ML Pick

Astros (+110)

Although the outlook for Jose Urquidy is not great so far this season, it’s extremely difficult to pass up on the Astros as a ML underdog. Their recent 11-game winning streak may be a thing of the past, but Houston has been a much better team than the Red Sox early on in the season.

One of the main reasons why bettors don’t need to shy away from backing the underdog even with the question mark on the mound is the Astros’ offense. Last year, Houston led the majors in scoring offense. This year, they rank 12th with an average of 4.28 runs per game entering the day. Three of the Astros’ biggest bats, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Yordan Alvarez, all have a history of great success when facing Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi.

The other factor that could separate the Astros in this game is their bullpen. Houston’s relievers have combined for a 2.91 ERA through the first month and a half of the season. While that ranks third in all of baseball, the Red Sox bullpen has the seventh-worst ERA coming in at 4.21.

If both offenses are able to find success early against the opponent’s starter, this could very well turn into a bullpen game. The Astros would have a decisive edge if that is the case. In Urquidy’s last start, he pitched only three innings before Dusty Baker opted to go to the pen. The Astros’ pitching depth behind their starter bolsters the outlook of backing them as a plus-money dog.

Astros vs. Red Sox RL Pick

Red Sox -1.5 (+180)

Tuesday’s game between these two teams is likely to feature plenty of offense. Having established this as our handicap along with making the case for betting on the underdog Astros to win outright, we now turn our attention to the plus-money run line price on the Red Sox.

In general, the more runs that are scored in a baseball game, the greater the likelihood of the favorite covering the run line. A higher rate of scoring simply leads to more variance in the final score. Considering the two probable starting pitchers for Tuesday’s contest, the edge most certainly goes to the bats for both teams.

After sputtering out of the gates, the highly-regarded Red Sox lineup has been producing at a higher clip of late. Combine Boston’s uptick in scoring with Urquidy’s early-season struggles on the road in particular and there is potential for a lot of runs to be scored. If Eovaldi manages to put together a quality start, there will be less time for the Sox’ bullpen to potentially blow a lead.

Astros vs. Red Sox O/U Pick

Over 8.5 Runs (-110)

The majority of the MLB betting market lists juiced odds to the Over on tonight’s game total. It’s extremely difficult to disagree given all of the factors at work here. Luckily, by shopping the odds, bettors can get down on the standard -110 listing at Caesars and not pay any extra juice at all.

The lineups for both the Astros and Red Sox are brimming with talented hitters. Given how Urquidy has struggled thus far and how the Boston bats seem to be finding their groove, one can make a great case for the Sox to put up several runs. The same can be said for the Astros lineup. In addition to many of Houston’s stars having strong track records against Eovaldi, the righthander’s susceptibility to giving up home runs could be a major problem this evening.

Also, keep in mind that Boston’s Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in all of baseball. One has to believe that this line might be set a little higher if not for the slow offensive start across all of MLB early on this season.

Astros vs. Red Sox Prop Bet

Urquidy Under 4.5 strikeouts (-155)

For as rough of a start as the Red Sox have had offensively this season, they have at least been above league average when it comes to putting balls in play. Entering Tuesday’s matchup, Boston has averaged 8.20 strikeouts per game as a team. This ranks 12th among all 30 MLB teams. Stars like Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts headline a lineup that is perhaps surprisingly deceptive to retire via the K.

Thus, it makes a lot of sense to play the Under 4.5 K’s for Houston’s Urquidy. To date, Urquidy has only fanned 19 batters across his first six starts. In five of those six outings, he finished with three total strikeouts or less.

The other factor at play here is how long the Astros will leave Urquidy in the game if he gets off to a shaky start. Only twice all season has the righthander surpassed 5.0 innings pitched. With offense expected from both sides, Urquidy could be hard-pressed to achieve the longevity necessary to eclipse his strikeout prop total.

Where to Bet on Astros-Red Sox Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Astros-Red Sox picks made on 5/17/2022 at 1:08 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.