The Players Championship Prop Picks and Matchups: Paths to Value on Tournament Favorites

The Players Championship takes place at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, and we have selected our favorite matchups and prop picks.

The defending champion of The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is Justin Thomas. Thomas won The Players last year by one stroke over Lee Westwood, as he shot a 64 on Saturday and 68 on Sunday.

It will be the first Players Championship without Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson since 1994. Moreover, this is the first time in the history of the Players Championship that each of the top-five golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are under the age of 30. It speaks volumes of how talented the new generation of golfers is on the PGA Tour.

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The Players features a loaded field with $20,000,000 in prize money on the line. Therefore, we have selected some of the best matchups and props for this year's tournament.

Players Championship Matchup Picks

Sungjae Im (+100) vs. Billy Horschel (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Billy Horschel has been on fire of late and is coming off an impressive performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Over his last four events, Horschel's most disappointing finish was a T-16 at The Honda Classic. While Horschel has been on a tear of late, the wrong golfer is favored in this matchup.

Horschel continues to struggle with his iron play, and he's relying heavily on his putting in the process. Horschel averages 0.81 Strokes gained: putting per round but only 0.02 SG: approach. When golfers rely this heavily on their putting to perform well, they eventually experience a regression in their performance.

Sungjae Im, on the other hand, has thrived in Florida over the course of his career, including at TPC Sawgrass. Im has averaged 1.73 SG: total over seven rounds at The Players. In addition, he has a stronger tee-to-green game than Horschel.

In this matchup, the +100 on Im is simply too strong to ignore. The wrong golfer is favored, and Im should be the one juiced to -120, not Horschel.

SEE ALSO: The Players Championship Picks and Preview

Will Zalatoris (+112) vs. Cameron Smith (via FanDuel)

It is Cameron Smith's putting ability that distinguishes him from Will Zalatoris. Smith is one of the top putters on the PGA Tour, and this is where Zalatoris needs to improve. As far as backing Zalatoris is concerned, he did gain strokes on the greens of TPC Sawgrass last season.

How can Zalatoris close the gap on Smith this week? He has a stronger tee-to-green game than Smith. Zalatoris averages 1.90 SG: tee-to-green per round, while Smith averages 1.37.

It cannot be denied that Smith is the better overall golfer in this matchup, however, that will not prevent me from taking advantage of a price I consider to be favorable. Smith is laying quite a bit of juice here at -142. He is the better golfer, but I believe the price is too much in Smith's favor to not buy back on Zalatoris. Zalatoris' +112 price point is one of the main reasons for backing him.

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Players Championship Top Prop Picks

Under 56.5 balls in the water on No. 17 (-110 via PointsBet)

In my opinion, this is the most valuable prop on the board. The Under on this prop is highly recommended, even though it is the opposite of what everyone will be hoping for. This prop is so mispriced that it must be exploited.

This prop has gone Over the 56.5 total only twice since 2009. Therefore, the Under has cashed 83.33% of the time in the last 12 tournaments. Bets with a win rate of 83.33% should carry juice of -500. Instead, you can get the bargain price of -110 thanks to PointsBet.

Honestly, it has not even come close to this total most often. During the last 12 tournaments, the average number of water balls at the 17th hole has been 43.91. This number is significantly lower than the total of 56.5 PointsBet is offering.

In this case, you must place the bet based on the numbers. If it exceeds the total, you must understand that you still made the right choice based on the odds provided.

SEE ALSO: Masters Picks

Top Great Britain & Ireland: Matt Fitzpatrick (+700 via PointsBet)

As long as the markets do not catch up with Matt Fitzpatrick's current level of play, I will continue to back him at courses where he has previously succeeded. Fitzpatrick is playing like one of the world's top golfers, yet the odds continue to devalue him.

The Englishman finished T-9 at The Players last year and is in much stronger form this year. He has averaged 0.96 SG: total across 17 career rounds played at TPC Sawgrass.

In terms of total strokes gained per round, Fitzpatrick is behind only Collin Morikawa this season. Fitzpatrick has averaged 2.351 SG: total in 20 rounds. Fitzpatrick is gaining almost a full stroke per round more than Hatton on the season, but Hatton has shorter odds to win this market.

Fitzpatrick's price of +700 to win this prop is, in my opinion, far too high. He ought to be second to McIlroy's odds of +280, if not the favorite. PointsBet is the only sportsbook offering +700 with DraftKings offering Fitzpatrick at +550 in this market.

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Tournament Handicap: Justin Thomas +1 (+1000 via PointsBet)

Justin Thomas is defending his title this week and is in excellent form. He has improved his driver this season, gaining an additional 0.32 SG: off-the-tee per round compared to last season.

As well as being in excellent form, Thomas has a strong course history at TPC Sawgrass. Over 24 career rounds at The Players, he has averaged 2.16 SG: total. The fact is that he did not win last year's tournament by means of smoke and mirrors. He was dominant and gained strokes in every major category.

For Thomas backers, this prop offers an interesting angle and price shopping opportunity this week. He has a price of +1000 to win The Players at DraftKings, but at PointsBet you can purchase this prop for the same price and receive one stroke on the spread. This prop is an excellent way to attack Thomas this week if you are considering backing him. The one-stroke cushion might not even be relevant but it is free of charge.

Player to shoot lowest round score: Jon Rahm (+1800 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

I have already placed a +1300 bet on Rahm to win The Players this week. In order to win, he must shoot a low round. He has experience in this area as he shot the lowest round in 2019.

During the 2019 Players Championship, Rahm's third round 64 was the lowest round of the week. Having done it once, there is no reason he cannot do it again. Also, his game correlates very well with this prop.

With his tee-to-green game, if he can putt half decent for one round, Rahm can easily shoot the lowest round of the week at The Players. It surprises me that they are offering this prop at +1800. Having him shoot the lowest round of the tournament would seem to be more likely to cash. However, we are receiving only +1300 for Rahm to win the tournament, as opposed to the +1800 in this prop.

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Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

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Players Championship prop picks made on 3/8/2022 at 5:24 p.m. ET.