West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Week 1 College Football Picks: Panthers Out to Prove Last Year Was No Fluke
The "Backyard Brawl" rivalry resumes for the first time since 2011 when the Pittsburgh Panthers host the West Virginia Mountaineers. We're breaking down the betting with our West Virginia-Pittsburgh picks.
Fans of the Mountaineers and Panthers are excited that one of the most fierce rivalries in college football resumes after more than a decade.
Pittsburgh ended Clemson's streak of six consecutive ACC championships last year, and its 11 wins meant it won double-digit games for the first time since 2009.
Meanwhile, West Virginia looks for a fourth straight win in this rivalry and is out to improve from a 6-7 campaign, which was its third season under .500 since 2002.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 1 game between West Virginia and Pittsburgh (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and Pointsbet).
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Game Info
Date: Thursday,
Sept. 1, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Acrisure Stadium,
Pittsburgh, PA
Weather: 79 degrees, 7% chance of
precipitation, 8-mph WNW winds
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Odds Analysis
Bettors can no longer back Pittsburgh at a touchdown or lower, as the Panthers' spread has risen to -7.5 or even -8 at some sportsbooks. Pittsburgh has drawn 57% of the total bets but for just 50% of the betting handle.
Though the point spread has moved some since the summer, that line movement is nothing compared to the movement on the total. The Over/Under has dropped from as high as 54 or 55 to a low of 50.5. Public and sharp bettors are aligned on the Under with 59% of the tickets totaling 84% of the handle.
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Picks
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh ATS Pick
Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110) ★★★
Pittsburgh's turnaround last year was largely due to quarterback Kenny Pickett's 4,319 yards and 42 touchdowns and wide receiver Jordan Addison's 100 catches, 1,593 yards, and 17 touchdowns. Though each player is gone, the team is confident that USC transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis will help the offense not miss a beat.
Slovis has thrown for over 7,500 yards in three seasons and had a 68.4% completion percentage and 58 touchdowns to 24 interceptions from 2019 to 2021 at USC. He has all five starters (and all red-shirt seniors) back on an offensive line that should be one of the best units in the country.
We have much more faith in Slovis' instant success than in J.T. Daniels' chances at West Virginia. Daniels is playing for his third team in four years, and he needs to prove he is healthy enough after dealing with several injuries before we back him against a top-20 team.
West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is 16-8-3 against the spread in August and September, but we still expect the Panthers to cover.
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West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh O/U Pick
Under 51 (-110) ★★★★
The Panthers' defense should be one of the most feared in the country, so we are not shy about backing the Under at a more compromised number.
Pittsburgh's strength defensively is on the line, where Calijah Kancey is destined to be an NFL first-round draft pick, and Habakkuk Baldonado returns after an All-ACC Second Team nomination.
Over the last three years, Pitt's 151 sacks rank first in the country, and its 2.76 YPC allowed ranks second only to Georgia.
On the back end, SirVocea Dennis is arguably the best hybrid defensive player in the country. Head coach Pat Narduzzi will line him up all over the field, as he is one of the country's most aggressive defensive-minded head coaches.
Look for both offenses to look sluggish out of the gate, but West Virginia's in particular.
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Prop Pick
First quarter Under 10.5 (-115) ★★★
Whether it is first-game jitters or two quarterbacks taking their first snaps at new schools, the first 15 minutes of this game should get off to a sluggish start.
An ideal play would be backing the under on West Virginia's team total, but since those odds are unavailable, this is a decent way to go along with that notion.
The offense could pick up once they get into a better rhythm, but we expect the first 15 minutes to be spent with both teams feeling each other out.
Where to Bet on West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
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West Virginia-Pittsburgh picks made 8/30/2022 at 2:38 p.m. ET
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