Utah State vs. Air Force Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 3: Conference Rivals Set For Shootout
Let's dive into our Utah State-Air Force predictions based on the latest college football odds from our best sports betting apps serve as the nightcap to Friday's tripleheader on the NCAA gridiron.
Utah State started the season with a 24-14 loss to Iowa but rebounded nicely with a commanding 78-28 victory over Idaho State at home. The Aggies' remarkable 78-point performance stands as the fourth-highest scoring game in program history.
Air Force enters with a 2-0 record after beating Robert Morris and Sam Houston by a combined score of 55-10. Air Force and Utah State have opened conference play against each other five times in 10 years, and the Aggies have won four of the meetings.
For help with your college football best bets for Week 3, we offer our best Utah State vs. Air Force prediction and college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Utah State vs. Air Force prediction: Week 3
Over 46.5 (-110 via BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you're betting on the total based on last week’s results, you'll have a clear debate on your hands for your college football Week 3 predictions. Utah State comes off a 591-yard output against Idaho State, its 24th-most total yards per game in school history, while Air Force held Sam Houston to just 80 total offensive yards, including 40 passing. We're looking more at the head-to-head matchups between these opponents and backing the Over based on their past high-scoring results.
The two teams combined for 61 points last year and 94 points in 2021. The Aggies finished their opening matchup against Iowa in an impressive fashion, totaling 329 yards over the final 51 minutes after falling behind quickly 14-0 and putting 14 points up on a Hawkeyes' D that held all but three opponents below that point total last season.
It's not just the Falcons with their triple-option rushing attack that should succeed in this game. Utah State had three players run for at least 80 yards against Idaho State last week. Even if the Aggies don't pound the Falcons on the ground based on their ninth-ranked rushing success rate last season, Air Force’s secondary could struggle to defend wideout Terrell Vaughn, who has 11.5 receptions per game.
Vaughn is the Aggies' clear passing weapon that has even more room to grow. Just two years ago, Utah State set season records for passing yards and touchdowns. The Aggies also know how to score in other ways this year, as they're one of seven FBS teams with two-plus defensive TDs.
Utah State ranks an FBS 14th in tackles for a loss, but Air Force is built to mitigate that strength with its prodding triple-option style. The Falcons have one of the conference's best offensive lines, with all but one starter returning from last year. They present a unique test for an Aggies' defense that returned just four starters from the past season.
Air Force ranks a college football top five in Stuff Rate Allowed and Offensive Line Yards for each of the previous two seasons. We're not as down as others on its offense after losing its all-time leading rusher, Brad Roberts, for 2023.
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Utah State vs. Air Force best odds
FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 |
| Over (-110)/ Under (-110) | Over (-110)/ Under (-110) | Over (-110)/ Under (-110) | Over (-110)/ Under (-110) | Over (-110)/ Under (-110) |
Bettors have plenty of shops to choose from, as DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a 47 Over/Under. Since DraftKings was one of the few to move this week, the game likely kicks off with a total in this vicinity unless the weather dictates a line move.
Utah State vs. Air Force odds
Utah State vs. Air Force odds analysis
The O/U is up from an opening number of 45.5. Even though no other shops settled in like DraftKings at a total of 47, some, like FanDuel, changed their pricing, as they offered -105 odds to back the Over Monday morning. DraftKings fluctuated between 47 and 46.5 for much of the last 24 hours, while BetMGM and Caesars touched highs of 47 before Under backers drove the line down to 46.5.
Most books agree with an Air Force point spread of -9.5, with DraftKings the only shop that settled at -10. FanDuel charges the most juice (-115) to back the Falcons. Caesars is the only other book this week that reached -10 (late Monday night) but has since come down to -9.5. Early point spread wagers are nearly 3/1 (71/29) in favor of Air Force.
Utah State vs. Air Force game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 15 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 46 degrees, 50% chance of precipitation, 10-mph NNW wind
Utah State-Air Force prediction made Wednesday, 9/13/23 at 6:42 a.m. ET.
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